lundi 16 novembre 2009

United States: significant increase in retail sales in October (+1.4% m / m)

The nominal retail sales rebounded 1.4% m / m in October. In contrast, figures for September were revised negatively (-2.3% m / m).
Vehicle sales rebounded 7.4% m / m. Excluding the more volatile categories - gasoline, vehicles, building materials - retail sales "underlying" rose for the third consecutive month by 0.5% m / m.
The context is unfavorable to the consumer, as recently illustrated the decline in indicators of consumer confidence. However, the third consecutive increase in retail sales "underlying" in October sends a reassuring message to this subject.


Significant increase in retail sales in October

The nominal retail sales rebounded 1.4% m / m in October. They have been particularly boosted by higher purchases of vehicles. In contrast, figures for September were revised negatively (-2.3% m / m instead of -1.5% m / m initially announced).

The October report shows that:

Vehicle sales rebounded 7.4% m / m, after falling twice as fast as the previous month (because of the withdrawal mechanism scrapping bonus).

Reflecting prices roughly stable, purchases of gasoline were unchanged from September.

Purchases of building materials fell for the fifth consecutive month (-2.4% m / m), despite the improvement in the housing market.

Excluding the more volatile categories - gasoline, vehicles, building materials - retail sales "underlying" rose for the third month
row, by 0.5% m / m. In particular, health products, clothing and shopping in stores general have continued to support increased sales.

The context is unfavorable to the consumer, as recently illustrated the decline in indicators of consumer confidence from the Conference Board (from 54.5 in August to 47.7 in October) and the University of Michigan (73, 5 in September to 66.0 in November). Job losses remain high, wage growth slows and the effects of the financial crisis are still being felt (constraints on credit, etc.).

However, the third consecutive increase in retail sales "underlying" in October sends a reassuring message about the consumer.

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