Statistics mixed on Wednesday for the U.S. economy. Both up but a little disappointing on the front of the consumer, clearly wrong on the housing market. Sales of new homes have fallen into effect in November, falling to their lowest level since April. Annual rate, only 355,000 transactions were conducted, 11.3% fewer than in October.
Markets believed instead that the situation on the housing market would result in an increase in sales to the image of resales of homes that had clearly exceeded expectations on Tuesday. The economists were betting on and 440,000 transactions. This figure is undermining the idea that depressed housing market, which lasts for three years, is nearing completion.
On the other hand, consumer confidence, consumer spending and incomes of households that have emerged in below expectations. As with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) U.S., three indicators have indeed increased, confirming that the recovery of the U.S. economy begins well, but less than was presaged by economists.
The index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for the month of December has been revised downwards in the final estimate, at 72.5 against 73.4 initially announced. This is slightly lower than expectations of economists who had forecast a confirmation of the first estimate. However, household morale has significantly improved compared to November (the Michigan index was then revealed to 67.4), a positive sign for the U.S. economy depends largely on consumption.
Consumer spending has thus registered their second consecutive month of increase, rising by 0.5% in November. The consensus of the market stood at 0.6%. This performance is particularly disappointing that the increase in consumption in October was revised down to 0.6% against 0.7% originally announced. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending posted a 0.2% gain in November.
mercredi 23 décembre 2009
Should we fear a housing crash in Asia?
"Investors should sell their property values: a means to reduce the risk of explosion of a bubble in the wake of the outbreak last year, 155% of the real estate sector." The recommendation of the Morgan Stanley sounds like a point of caution: it is urgent to sell its real estate securities listed on the site of Shanghai!
Certainly, especially as an investor, you do not hold title to real Chinese groups, but since this is happening now outside of France may have implications for your investments, it becomes necessary keep abreast of trends in foreign markets.
China, Singapore, South Korea ... the housing bubble inflated in Asia
If the Chinese real estate are overvalued is that the real estate market of the Middle Kingdom continues to rise. "Recently, reports are increasing on soaring house prices in major Chinese cities, reports the China Daily Xinwen Chenbao. "In Changchun (North) and Nanning (southwest), house prices register record after record and meet peaks in Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou (south-east)."
China is not alone in facing such an increase in real estate. Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia are not far behind. In Singapore, sales of homes completed during the first seven months of the year were 2.3 times higher than in 2008 at the same time, especially in the capital, where real estate prices have increased d 'third.
In South Korea, the situation is almost identical house prices have risen steadily over the last five months in Seoul, prices were up 20% since early 2009.
Abundance of liquidity
Why such a housing boom in Asia (excluding Japan)? Many economists point to the abundance of liquidity issues, including recovery plans. Asian countries have turned the printing press and opened the credit tap.
In China, the country has not only implemented a recovery plan providing 4 000 MdsҰ (461 billion euros) but also left its banks allow up to 8 670 MdsҰ (849 billion euros) credits during the first nine months of the year. But a significant portion of these loans was invested in the stock market, especially in real estate. "Because of the decline in profitability over the past two years, some state enterprises engaged in manufacturing and exporting have decided to increase their investments in real estate," admits a Chinese official.
On the other hand, we must emphasize the impact of the arrival of foreign capital on the Asian property markets. The World Bank, "capital for an amount estimated at tens of billions of dollars have recently flocked to East Asia, which may cause a bubble in some stock and housing markets in the region. International investors and rely on a more rapid recovery of the most dynamic economy in the world, but also on a possible revaluation of the yuan. Meanwhile, housing prices continue to rise.
And if the bubble burst?
"The world would be very difficult," said Jacques Attali about the bubble forming in China. If a property crash occurred in this country, a second systemic crisis would be inevitable, with consequences far more serious for the economy and the wealth of investors.
Remember, because of the current crisis, the fortunes of five hundred French richest fell 27% in one year, depending on the site ladepeche.fr! But the likelihood of that crash remains low in the ten to fifteen years to come: China needed urban housing.
Today, its urbanization rate is 45%. To achieve a target of 65% by 2025, it will build each year, enough to accommodate between 15 and 20 million people. "This means that for ten to fifteen years, he must build each year a city as important as London or New York," said one Chinese sociologist. He added: "The program is part of urbanization in the Chinese strategy of development of domestic consumption."
Certainly, especially as an investor, you do not hold title to real Chinese groups, but since this is happening now outside of France may have implications for your investments, it becomes necessary keep abreast of trends in foreign markets.
China, Singapore, South Korea ... the housing bubble inflated in Asia
If the Chinese real estate are overvalued is that the real estate market of the Middle Kingdom continues to rise. "Recently, reports are increasing on soaring house prices in major Chinese cities, reports the China Daily Xinwen Chenbao. "In Changchun (North) and Nanning (southwest), house prices register record after record and meet peaks in Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou (south-east)."
China is not alone in facing such an increase in real estate. Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia are not far behind. In Singapore, sales of homes completed during the first seven months of the year were 2.3 times higher than in 2008 at the same time, especially in the capital, where real estate prices have increased d 'third.
In South Korea, the situation is almost identical house prices have risen steadily over the last five months in Seoul, prices were up 20% since early 2009.
Abundance of liquidity
Why such a housing boom in Asia (excluding Japan)? Many economists point to the abundance of liquidity issues, including recovery plans. Asian countries have turned the printing press and opened the credit tap.
In China, the country has not only implemented a recovery plan providing 4 000 MdsҰ (461 billion euros) but also left its banks allow up to 8 670 MdsҰ (849 billion euros) credits during the first nine months of the year. But a significant portion of these loans was invested in the stock market, especially in real estate. "Because of the decline in profitability over the past two years, some state enterprises engaged in manufacturing and exporting have decided to increase their investments in real estate," admits a Chinese official.
On the other hand, we must emphasize the impact of the arrival of foreign capital on the Asian property markets. The World Bank, "capital for an amount estimated at tens of billions of dollars have recently flocked to East Asia, which may cause a bubble in some stock and housing markets in the region. International investors and rely on a more rapid recovery of the most dynamic economy in the world, but also on a possible revaluation of the yuan. Meanwhile, housing prices continue to rise.
And if the bubble burst?
"The world would be very difficult," said Jacques Attali about the bubble forming in China. If a property crash occurred in this country, a second systemic crisis would be inevitable, with consequences far more serious for the economy and the wealth of investors.
Remember, because of the current crisis, the fortunes of five hundred French richest fell 27% in one year, depending on the site ladepeche.fr! But the likelihood of that crash remains low in the ten to fifteen years to come: China needed urban housing.
Today, its urbanization rate is 45%. To achieve a target of 65% by 2025, it will build each year, enough to accommodate between 15 and 20 million people. "This means that for ten to fifteen years, he must build each year a city as important as London or New York," said one Chinese sociologist. He added: "The program is part of urbanization in the Chinese strategy of development of domestic consumption."
mardi 22 décembre 2009
Towards a limited increase in house prices UK in 2010
Despite signs of improvement in recent months, the upturn of the UK property market will remain weak in 2010.
According to the Royal Intitution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the expected recovery rate of the Bank of England mechanically increase the cost of borrowing and put pressure on buyers.
Direct consequence, the rising UK house prices should remain contained. RICS table at best an increase of 1 to 2% in house prices in 2010.
According to the Royal Intitution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the expected recovery rate of the Bank of England mechanically increase the cost of borrowing and put pressure on buyers.
Direct consequence, the rising UK house prices should remain contained. RICS table at best an increase of 1 to 2% in house prices in 2010.
United States : The resale housing continues to grow
They rose by 7.4% in November, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.
For the seventh time in eight months, home resales in the U.S. have continued to rise in November. On the month, they rose by 7.4% to 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
This figure clearly indicates a rush of first time buyers who do not want to miss the opportunity that represents the tax credit system in place to encourage investment in real estate, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. The device, extended by the Obama team has already helped to boost the property sector.
For the seventh time in eight months, home resales in the U.S. have continued to rise in November. On the month, they rose by 7.4% to 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
This figure clearly indicates a rush of first time buyers who do not want to miss the opportunity that represents the tax credit system in place to encourage investment in real estate, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. The device, extended by the Obama team has already helped to boost the property sector.
dimanche 20 décembre 2009
The housing market in Canada is in good health, according to economists
The property market has received Canadian Friday a bill of health from one of the largest banking institutions in the country, thus allaying the fears expressed by the Bank of Canada's debt levels too high for consumers .
In a report on real estate and stock markets, economists at CIBC World Markets argued that the concerns of the central bank were exaggerated even if it was right to make.
According to the chief economist of CIBC, Avery Shenfeld, Canada will not experience a crisis SIMILAR to that recently affected the housing market and mortgage lending in the United States.
Last week, Bank of Canada stated that the record level of debt of Canadian households was the first danger that threatened the financial system, a warning repeated in Toronto earlier this week by the Governor of the Bank, Mark Carney.
The institution was recognized that the risk was low, but was worried that, should a return interest rates to normal, more than 10 per cent of households have difficulty meeting their monthly payments.
Economists at CIBC vindicated Mr. Carney on rising interest rates, which likely occur during the second half of 2010, but does not believe that it will endanger a bulll, whether on the lending market mortgage or the ordinary shares.
In a report on real estate and stock markets, economists at CIBC World Markets argued that the concerns of the central bank were exaggerated even if it was right to make.
According to the chief economist of CIBC, Avery Shenfeld, Canada will not experience a crisis SIMILAR to that recently affected the housing market and mortgage lending in the United States.
Last week, Bank of Canada stated that the record level of debt of Canadian households was the first danger that threatened the financial system, a warning repeated in Toronto earlier this week by the Governor of the Bank, Mark Carney.
The institution was recognized that the risk was low, but was worried that, should a return interest rates to normal, more than 10 per cent of households have difficulty meeting their monthly payments.
Economists at CIBC vindicated Mr. Carney on rising interest rates, which likely occur during the second half of 2010, but does not believe that it will endanger a bulll, whether on the lending market mortgage or the ordinary shares.
Investment Real Estate 2010 : What to expect?
In his memo on the economy in December 2009, INSEE noted that house prices have stabilized in the third quarter of 2009 and inventories of new homes were down significantly due to the rebound in sales.
Noting that the level of housing activity is still low, INSEE said however that the low point of the cycle has been achieved recently and the improvement that is emerging for the new one begins to occur also for former homes.
As proof, the Century 21 group who reported a significant rise in property prices over the 4th quarter 2009, an increase in price that follows the one already observed for the 3rd quarter of 0.65%.
Same story on the side of FNAIM, that in a study published Friday, says a rise in house prices of 1.0% in November compared to October with a larger increase for flats (1.4% ) than for houses (0.5%).
Accordingly, while various forecasts made at the end of 2008 had forecast a decline of 10% and higher selling prices for 2009, the decline may eventually be limited to 5% for the whole year: it is far from krack dreaded real estate after several years of significant increases continuously;
Does this mean finding a real estate recovery in 2010, one thing is clear: lower prices seems complete: the element that might contradict this finding is a sharp rise in interest rates during 2010, for the 'moment, economic forecasts are rather in the sense of maintaining rates at current levels or at least a moderate gain.
If the continued rise in unemployment and rise (very moderate) price in the nine can curb real estate purchases, keeping mortgage rates below 4% and the existence of an application unmet housing are the two driving forces pushing for a gradual recovery in the housing market supported by the extension in the Finance Act 2010, the device Scellier for acquisitions of new properties for rental which are not labeled "BBC homes.
In other words, for prospective purchasers, the first half of 2009 is a favorable period for investing in real estate whether for rent or housing.
Noting that the level of housing activity is still low, INSEE said however that the low point of the cycle has been achieved recently and the improvement that is emerging for the new one begins to occur also for former homes.
As proof, the Century 21 group who reported a significant rise in property prices over the 4th quarter 2009, an increase in price that follows the one already observed for the 3rd quarter of 0.65%.
Same story on the side of FNAIM, that in a study published Friday, says a rise in house prices of 1.0% in November compared to October with a larger increase for flats (1.4% ) than for houses (0.5%).
Accordingly, while various forecasts made at the end of 2008 had forecast a decline of 10% and higher selling prices for 2009, the decline may eventually be limited to 5% for the whole year: it is far from krack dreaded real estate after several years of significant increases continuously;
Does this mean finding a real estate recovery in 2010, one thing is clear: lower prices seems complete: the element that might contradict this finding is a sharp rise in interest rates during 2010, for the 'moment, economic forecasts are rather in the sense of maintaining rates at current levels or at least a moderate gain.
If the continued rise in unemployment and rise (very moderate) price in the nine can curb real estate purchases, keeping mortgage rates below 4% and the existence of an application unmet housing are the two driving forces pushing for a gradual recovery in the housing market supported by the extension in the Finance Act 2010, the device Scellier for acquisitions of new properties for rental which are not labeled "BBC homes.
In other words, for prospective purchasers, the first half of 2009 is a favorable period for investing in real estate whether for rent or housing.
samedi 19 décembre 2009
Property : Good news for U.S. real estate
Sales of homes in the United States should have continued to rise in November, about 2% in the former and the new, according to the latest forecasts of Global Equities.
The research firm believes that the economic federation of U.S. realtors, NAR, will report next Tuesday a 2.5% increase in sales of existing homes, for a total of 6.25 million transactions in annualized - a record in nearly three years. Published Wednesday, the new home sales should show an increase of 2.2% to 440 000 transactions a highest since August 2008. On an annual basis, sales were up about 13% in the former, and nearly 38% in nine.
The U.S. housing market remains supported by the tax credit granted by the Obama administration as part of its recovery plan, first with only first-time buyers and recently extended to all purchasers.
The research firm believes that the economic federation of U.S. realtors, NAR, will report next Tuesday a 2.5% increase in sales of existing homes, for a total of 6.25 million transactions in annualized - a record in nearly three years. Published Wednesday, the new home sales should show an increase of 2.2% to 440 000 transactions a highest since August 2008. On an annual basis, sales were up about 13% in the former, and nearly 38% in nine.
The U.S. housing market remains supported by the tax credit granted by the Obama administration as part of its recovery plan, first with only first-time buyers and recently extended to all purchasers.
USA : 1st rise in property prices in two years
The U.S. housing sees the end of the tunnel. A study of the company IHS Global Insight, house prices in the U.S. rose 0.9% on average annually in the third quarter of 2009, signing to pass their first increase since the second quarter 2007. Prices are up in 169 of the 330 cities studied, against just 13 in the fourth quarter of 2008 at the height of the crisis.
Caution, this improvement "does not necessarily mean that the market is on the road to recovery," warns James Diffley, managing director at IHS Global Insight. An opinion shared by Jeannine Cataldi: chief economist for the society, it is undeniable that the support measures implemented by the Obama administration in the recovery plan have played their role. However, "economic conditions remain dire, with an unemployment rate should remain close to 10% for quite a long time," says she, in fact rejecting a fair market rebound.
Caution, this improvement "does not necessarily mean that the market is on the road to recovery," warns James Diffley, managing director at IHS Global Insight. An opinion shared by Jeannine Cataldi: chief economist for the society, it is undeniable that the support measures implemented by the Obama administration in the recovery plan have played their role. However, "economic conditions remain dire, with an unemployment rate should remain close to 10% for quite a long time," says she, in fact rejecting a fair market rebound.
vendredi 18 décembre 2009
The ECB believes that banks still need impairments
Requirements estimated depreciation banks in the euro area have increased over the last six months even if the systemic risk has decreased, says the European Central Bank (ECB).
It estimates that 553 billion euros the total depreciation for the period 2007-2010, against 488 billion in June The writedowns still to be included in the accounts represent 187 billion euros according to his estimates, against 214 billion six months ago.
"Since the number of impairments in the pipes by the end of 2010 fell only slightly, this means that the remaining losses will be recouped from the profits of banks over a period of time shorter," wrote the ECB its financial stability report.
She adds that the situation of the financial system has improved.
"The tensions on the financial system of the euro area has clearly decreased due to programs supporting financial sector, macroeconomic support and the ongoing economic recovery," she said.
The central bank identifies three significant risks to the financial system of the euro area: a revival of financial stress, exposure to market commercial real estate and Eastern Europe, and a possible case of renewed financial markets.
However, the rising price of movable assets and lower risk premiums suggest standardization, says it by explaining that the clearest signs of a return to normal may occur on private capital markets euro area, which has increased liquidity, promoting lower volatility.
The gradual improvement of the global economic outlook has helped the prospects of stability and financial pressures on the balance sheet fell, says the ECB.
She adds that the adjustment of global imbalances in current accounts has continued, but it is fragile due to cyclical factors rather than structural.
IRREGULAR REPEAT
In the eurozone, the macroeconomic environment has improved, but uncertainties remain, the ECB said in its report.
"The recovery is expected to remain fairly irregular, supported by a number of temporary factors in the short term, but it will probably be affected in the medium term the ongoing process of adjustment of balances in the financial and non-financial economy both within and outside the euro area, "says the ECB.
She also warns against the risk of recovery at two speeds noting that "considerable heterogeneity remains in economic development at national level".
Without speaking directly about interest rates, the central bank believes that the interest rate risk is limited.
"Even if a further decline in interest rates seems unlikely, the relatively low interest rates should continue to support a reduction in debt burden relative to 2008 levels," she said in her report.
Despite the improved outlook, the ECB refers to many risks ranging from debt to defects of private companies.
For non-financial firms, low profit, high indebtedness and dependence on bank financing are the main risks and default rates "corporate" should remain high, the ECB said.
"Over the coming months, the overall balance in the area of non-financial euro area is expected to remain difficult," said she.
"This means that banks in the euro area can expect significant additional writedowns on loans to businesses during the coming year."
The increase in state debt is also a serious cause for concern because it could limit the funding available for the private sector and hamper recovery, says the institution.
Governments themselves, will ensure that the withdrawal of measures to support the economy operates in an orderly manner.
The ECB added that the outlook for bonds in the euro area remain vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties.
It estimates that 553 billion euros the total depreciation for the period 2007-2010, against 488 billion in June The writedowns still to be included in the accounts represent 187 billion euros according to his estimates, against 214 billion six months ago.
"Since the number of impairments in the pipes by the end of 2010 fell only slightly, this means that the remaining losses will be recouped from the profits of banks over a period of time shorter," wrote the ECB its financial stability report.
She adds that the situation of the financial system has improved.
"The tensions on the financial system of the euro area has clearly decreased due to programs supporting financial sector, macroeconomic support and the ongoing economic recovery," she said.
The central bank identifies three significant risks to the financial system of the euro area: a revival of financial stress, exposure to market commercial real estate and Eastern Europe, and a possible case of renewed financial markets.
However, the rising price of movable assets and lower risk premiums suggest standardization, says it by explaining that the clearest signs of a return to normal may occur on private capital markets euro area, which has increased liquidity, promoting lower volatility.
The gradual improvement of the global economic outlook has helped the prospects of stability and financial pressures on the balance sheet fell, says the ECB.
She adds that the adjustment of global imbalances in current accounts has continued, but it is fragile due to cyclical factors rather than structural.
IRREGULAR REPEAT
In the eurozone, the macroeconomic environment has improved, but uncertainties remain, the ECB said in its report.
"The recovery is expected to remain fairly irregular, supported by a number of temporary factors in the short term, but it will probably be affected in the medium term the ongoing process of adjustment of balances in the financial and non-financial economy both within and outside the euro area, "says the ECB.
She also warns against the risk of recovery at two speeds noting that "considerable heterogeneity remains in economic development at national level".
Without speaking directly about interest rates, the central bank believes that the interest rate risk is limited.
"Even if a further decline in interest rates seems unlikely, the relatively low interest rates should continue to support a reduction in debt burden relative to 2008 levels," she said in her report.
Despite the improved outlook, the ECB refers to many risks ranging from debt to defects of private companies.
For non-financial firms, low profit, high indebtedness and dependence on bank financing are the main risks and default rates "corporate" should remain high, the ECB said.
"Over the coming months, the overall balance in the area of non-financial euro area is expected to remain difficult," said she.
"This means that banks in the euro area can expect significant additional writedowns on loans to businesses during the coming year."
The increase in state debt is also a serious cause for concern because it could limit the funding available for the private sector and hamper recovery, says the institution.
Governments themselves, will ensure that the withdrawal of measures to support the economy operates in an orderly manner.
The ECB added that the outlook for bonds in the euro area remain vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties.
Real estate: prices rose in November, according to FNAIM
The price of the older building rose 1% in November, according to FNAIM. The increase is strongest for flats (1.4%) than for houses (0.5).
According to estate agents, stabilizing prices in the former is confirmed. During the month of November 2009, the house prices have recorded a further increase of 1%, more marked on the apartment market (+1.4%) than on houses (0.5%) by the national federation of real estate (FNAIM). "After a slight increase of 0.6% in October, the movement of price stabilization is confirmed in the short term (0.4% over the last three months)," said the federation.
A neighbor down -5% in 2009
The end of the year is projected by the FNAIM be "marked by a resistance price decline. In one year, the latter amounted to -6.2% and is expected to stabilize at 5% for the full year 2009 in the absence of price pressures in December.
"The year 2009 is expected to record a total average decrease in prices compared to 2008 about 5%, indicating the Fnaim last month, while the previously estimated between 7% and 8%, after speaking of an 10% drop earlier this year. The price decline for 2009, lower than expected due to a movement to stabilize prices in the short term "by Fnaim, is the second in a row after that of 2008 (-3.1% compared to 2007).
According to estate agents, stabilizing prices in the former is confirmed. During the month of November 2009, the house prices have recorded a further increase of 1%, more marked on the apartment market (+1.4%) than on houses (0.5%) by the national federation of real estate (FNAIM). "After a slight increase of 0.6% in October, the movement of price stabilization is confirmed in the short term (0.4% over the last three months)," said the federation.
A neighbor down -5% in 2009
The end of the year is projected by the FNAIM be "marked by a resistance price decline. In one year, the latter amounted to -6.2% and is expected to stabilize at 5% for the full year 2009 in the absence of price pressures in December.
"The year 2009 is expected to record a total average decrease in prices compared to 2008 about 5%, indicating the Fnaim last month, while the previously estimated between 7% and 8%, after speaking of an 10% drop earlier this year. The price decline for 2009, lower than expected due to a movement to stabilize prices in the short term "by Fnaim, is the second in a row after that of 2008 (-3.1% compared to 2007).
mercredi 16 décembre 2009
Real estate loans: unemployment insurance with assistance to return to employment
Crédit Immobilier de France markets over the past year unemployment insurance in addition to the repayment of the loan, the borrower is actively assisting in finding a job. The clientele seems seduced: the equipment rate reached a three-borrower.
Crédit Immobilier de France (CIF), specialist mortgages with 40,000 to 50,000 new customers every year, celebrates the success of its insurance against the risk of job loss, called "Active Protection Employment" was launched there is a year and created specifically for its account by CNP Assurances. "Submit a response exclusively financial loss of employment did not seem enough," explains Thierry Gillouin, Director of Marketing of Credit Immobilier de France. The hotel offers a contract in effect that in addition to conventional financial guarantee in case of unemployment, offers a real guarantee of out-sourcing, supported by his partner, Econova (subsidiary of Altedia).
Embarking on a journey back to employment
Clearly, he is helping the person licensed to find work quickly. But it is not a word in the air or a simple guarantee of assistance as may be found in other contracts. In the contract of ICF / NPC, the borrower must, in case of problem, formally engage in a course of returning to work, first with an interview given very early period of unemployment, followed by d 'a few days of training in techniques for job search and then a weekly maintenance (the 1,500 agencies Adecco offer their premises for holding these discussions with specialists Econova). "We do everything to prevent the employee who loses his job is sort of a working environment," argues Marie-Helene Seguy, head of partnerships at the direction of bank customers in CNP Assurances, adding that in " 75% of cases, the approach is beneficial. "
A borrower has agreed on three in 2009
The creation of such a guarantee against unemployment corresponded to a very specific problem: fewer and fewer borrowers will choose the insurance job loss Crédit Immobilier de France (CIF): 16% in 2005, 14% in 2006 and only 12% in 2007. Suddenly, the institution wanted to create a differentiating contract, which accompanies and takes over the insured from loss of employment. The formula is obviously successful, knowing that the CIF is intended primarily for workers and employees: in 2009, one customer in three guaranteed by contract "Active Employment Protection.
How it works and how much does it cost?
In addition to support for return to employment, the main security is financial, with a refund of part of the monthly payment in case of unemployment. Two forms exist: an assumption of 25% of the maturity of the loan over a period of six months, an assumption of 50% over a further period of 18 months (24 months total). In the first case, it costs 0.14% of borrowed capital and in the second, 0.27% of the capital borrowed, or, for an average loan of 140,000 euros over 25 years, for example, the unemployment insurance premium s' raise to 16.33 euros per month for the minimum guarantee and 31.50 euros per month for the second. All borrowers occupation can subscribe to the condition of being under the age of 60. the waiting period is one year, but beyond the warranty immediately, capital is expected even when the unemployment, equivalent to 150% of last installment paid (or 1,100 euros for a monthly average 738 euros) and can finance his travel to job interviews or a new dress to present themselves at its best.
Collateral used four times
The novelty is that this guarantee of 6 or 24 months, renewable four times during the life of the loan. To enjoy again, the borrower must have worked at least 12 months between two periods of support. "It is very rare on the market. Average contracts provide for two periods of care, not more," said Marie-Helene Seguy. At a time when unemployment is increasing, this contract may be an appropriate response for those who can afford the costs.
Crédit Immobilier de France (CIF), specialist mortgages with 40,000 to 50,000 new customers every year, celebrates the success of its insurance against the risk of job loss, called "Active Protection Employment" was launched there is a year and created specifically for its account by CNP Assurances. "Submit a response exclusively financial loss of employment did not seem enough," explains Thierry Gillouin, Director of Marketing of Credit Immobilier de France. The hotel offers a contract in effect that in addition to conventional financial guarantee in case of unemployment, offers a real guarantee of out-sourcing, supported by his partner, Econova (subsidiary of Altedia).
Embarking on a journey back to employment
Clearly, he is helping the person licensed to find work quickly. But it is not a word in the air or a simple guarantee of assistance as may be found in other contracts. In the contract of ICF / NPC, the borrower must, in case of problem, formally engage in a course of returning to work, first with an interview given very early period of unemployment, followed by d 'a few days of training in techniques for job search and then a weekly maintenance (the 1,500 agencies Adecco offer their premises for holding these discussions with specialists Econova). "We do everything to prevent the employee who loses his job is sort of a working environment," argues Marie-Helene Seguy, head of partnerships at the direction of bank customers in CNP Assurances, adding that in " 75% of cases, the approach is beneficial. "
A borrower has agreed on three in 2009
The creation of such a guarantee against unemployment corresponded to a very specific problem: fewer and fewer borrowers will choose the insurance job loss Crédit Immobilier de France (CIF): 16% in 2005, 14% in 2006 and only 12% in 2007. Suddenly, the institution wanted to create a differentiating contract, which accompanies and takes over the insured from loss of employment. The formula is obviously successful, knowing that the CIF is intended primarily for workers and employees: in 2009, one customer in three guaranteed by contract "Active Employment Protection.
How it works and how much does it cost?
In addition to support for return to employment, the main security is financial, with a refund of part of the monthly payment in case of unemployment. Two forms exist: an assumption of 25% of the maturity of the loan over a period of six months, an assumption of 50% over a further period of 18 months (24 months total). In the first case, it costs 0.14% of borrowed capital and in the second, 0.27% of the capital borrowed, or, for an average loan of 140,000 euros over 25 years, for example, the unemployment insurance premium s' raise to 16.33 euros per month for the minimum guarantee and 31.50 euros per month for the second. All borrowers occupation can subscribe to the condition of being under the age of 60. the waiting period is one year, but beyond the warranty immediately, capital is expected even when the unemployment, equivalent to 150% of last installment paid (or 1,100 euros for a monthly average 738 euros) and can finance his travel to job interviews or a new dress to present themselves at its best.
Collateral used four times
The novelty is that this guarantee of 6 or 24 months, renewable four times during the life of the loan. To enjoy again, the borrower must have worked at least 12 months between two periods of support. "It is very rare on the market. Average contracts provide for two periods of care, not more," said Marie-Helene Seguy. At a time when unemployment is increasing, this contract may be an appropriate response for those who can afford the costs.
Real Estate: 2010 years of the recovery?
The end of the year 2008 was marked by a stop focused on real estate market. What about a little over a year after the island of Ré, in a relatively untouched by the housing crisis? Response elements with professionals rétais.
On the housing market rétais, as everywhere in France, things have changed over the last twelve months. In 2006, it is very clear who were the sellers market. The very strong price growth accompanied the increase in the domestic market. The island of Ré becoming an upmarket destination, the property prices have increased above average. But the following year, the number of properties for sale had increased and houses overestimated already beginning to sell less well.
Then, the euphoria has left very much in September 2008. "There was a very difficult six months during the last quarter 2008 and first quarter of 2009, confirms Christopher Cushion (Hurtaud agency, Sainte-Marie-de-Ré). There was virtually no trade in this island period, the market was frozen. Then we felt a slight recovery last spring, but uncertain because the funding does not follow. " In other words, banks remained wary and buyers who needed to sell a property to buy could not sell.
Behavior change
The storm now appears to move away from the real estate market rétais. The territory has been less affected than other French regions. But in recent months have left traces in behavior. "Now, owners want vendors who sell really become realistic, says Chrystelle Longeville Agency Port Orpi La Flotte. In 2007, the year of euphoria, the sellers wanted to sell their property 10 to 15% in - above the market, which was already very high. " But when such property has no takers, buyers may be more difficult. "When a good is its price, it sells immediately, continues Chrystelle Longeville. But a term 'used, taken in 2007, and overvalued can now be negotiated up to 30 % down. "The vendors have had difficulty receiving this crisis and believed that the island of Re was not concerned. In fact, they always said here, the market would rise forever," said Christophe cushion.
A brake, but no balances
Do not still believe that the housing market rétais is on promotion! "Some buyers have attempted to negotiate property with strong negotiation, including goods at fair prices," says Christophe cushion. Some buyers were opportunistic and literally several vendors could not wait. There is not a radical decline, but a brake or a settlement. "
Even feeling the side of Olivier Renault, Agency Port Orpi to Fleet: "We felt a recovery since the month of May It was not a crisis but a brake.
Still, as now, the buyers take their time and are increasingly demanding. "The market has moved from a state with a speculative investment market long term, says Olivier Renault. The euphoria of price growth has stabilized."
So what will happen in the coming months? Christophe Cushion is optimistic: "we felt it was an air pocket and that it perhaps did not last. Ré Island is very attractive and we have a sustained activity since September. We therefore more serene. " Chrystelle Longeville also believes that the island of Ré still seduce buyers "including people with significant wealth. But do not believe they will buy at any price!".
The year 2010 may be the year of recovery, but realism is in order. The property "in juice" overvalued and will be difficult to sell, while the products remain desired character. What was already true before, but is even more now.
The number of transactions down
In 2007, there were approximately 850 real estate transactions on the island of Ré. In 2008, the volume of sales declined, with about 650 transactions. For 2009, the number of transactions should reach around 600 or less.
The bulk of the market relates to property whose price does not exceed 450 000. The band between 450 000 and 800 includes 000 fewer goods. And when it exceeds 800 000 euros, we literally changing market. Property exception s'appréhendent indeed not as holiday homes, but rather as investments. There is also a category of goods covered by a price of convenience (seaview, sea access, exceptional property, etc..) Whose rates can exceed one million and a half euros. But again, the buyers are acting more as asset managers.
Finally, on land, demand increases since the beginning of 2009 for the achievements of primary residences and prices are not falling. Before 2007, land took 10 to 15% per year. Today, they are still expensive, but they increase more slowly, but became rare.
On the housing market rétais, as everywhere in France, things have changed over the last twelve months. In 2006, it is very clear who were the sellers market. The very strong price growth accompanied the increase in the domestic market. The island of Ré becoming an upmarket destination, the property prices have increased above average. But the following year, the number of properties for sale had increased and houses overestimated already beginning to sell less well.
Then, the euphoria has left very much in September 2008. "There was a very difficult six months during the last quarter 2008 and first quarter of 2009, confirms Christopher Cushion (Hurtaud agency, Sainte-Marie-de-Ré). There was virtually no trade in this island period, the market was frozen. Then we felt a slight recovery last spring, but uncertain because the funding does not follow. " In other words, banks remained wary and buyers who needed to sell a property to buy could not sell.
Behavior change
The storm now appears to move away from the real estate market rétais. The territory has been less affected than other French regions. But in recent months have left traces in behavior. "Now, owners want vendors who sell really become realistic, says Chrystelle Longeville Agency Port Orpi La Flotte. In 2007, the year of euphoria, the sellers wanted to sell their property 10 to 15% in - above the market, which was already very high. " But when such property has no takers, buyers may be more difficult. "When a good is its price, it sells immediately, continues Chrystelle Longeville. But a term 'used, taken in 2007, and overvalued can now be negotiated up to 30 % down. "The vendors have had difficulty receiving this crisis and believed that the island of Re was not concerned. In fact, they always said here, the market would rise forever," said Christophe cushion.
A brake, but no balances
Do not still believe that the housing market rétais is on promotion! "Some buyers have attempted to negotiate property with strong negotiation, including goods at fair prices," says Christophe cushion. Some buyers were opportunistic and literally several vendors could not wait. There is not a radical decline, but a brake or a settlement. "
Even feeling the side of Olivier Renault, Agency Port Orpi to Fleet: "We felt a recovery since the month of May It was not a crisis but a brake.
Still, as now, the buyers take their time and are increasingly demanding. "The market has moved from a state with a speculative investment market long term, says Olivier Renault. The euphoria of price growth has stabilized."
So what will happen in the coming months? Christophe Cushion is optimistic: "we felt it was an air pocket and that it perhaps did not last. Ré Island is very attractive and we have a sustained activity since September. We therefore more serene. " Chrystelle Longeville also believes that the island of Ré still seduce buyers "including people with significant wealth. But do not believe they will buy at any price!".
The year 2010 may be the year of recovery, but realism is in order. The property "in juice" overvalued and will be difficult to sell, while the products remain desired character. What was already true before, but is even more now.
The number of transactions down
In 2007, there were approximately 850 real estate transactions on the island of Ré. In 2008, the volume of sales declined, with about 650 transactions. For 2009, the number of transactions should reach around 600 or less.
The bulk of the market relates to property whose price does not exceed 450 000. The band between 450 000 and 800 includes 000 fewer goods. And when it exceeds 800 000 euros, we literally changing market. Property exception s'appréhendent indeed not as holiday homes, but rather as investments. There is also a category of goods covered by a price of convenience (seaview, sea access, exceptional property, etc..) Whose rates can exceed one million and a half euros. But again, the buyers are acting more as asset managers.
Finally, on land, demand increases since the beginning of 2009 for the achievements of primary residences and prices are not falling. Before 2007, land took 10 to 15% per year. Today, they are still expensive, but they increase more slowly, but became rare.
mardi 15 décembre 2009
Resale Property leaps in Canada
The number of transactions jumped 73% to 36 383 for existing homes if we compare this month with the same period in 2008.
The sale also set records in Quebec and Ontario.
Since the beginning of the year, the resale rose 5% to the country, the biggest gains being registered in Ontario and British Columbia.
The average price for a house is $ 337 000 in November, a slight decrease compared to October. However, it is 19% above that a year ago. The stocks on the market also dropped from 23% last year.
"Residential sales in Canada last month showed how far the housing market has rebounded since the beginning of the year," says Dale Ripplinger, president of the Canadian Real Estate.
"As we predicted last April, says he, the upturn in the residential resale market has enabled all of the Canadian economy out of recession."
The recovery will by cons side effects, said Gregory Klump, chief economist of the association. "The houses become less affordable in the market as the overall economy improves, and the group of buyers who will be eligible for funding will be fewer."
The sale also set records in Quebec and Ontario.
Since the beginning of the year, the resale rose 5% to the country, the biggest gains being registered in Ontario and British Columbia.
The average price for a house is $ 337 000 in November, a slight decrease compared to October. However, it is 19% above that a year ago. The stocks on the market also dropped from 23% last year.
"Residential sales in Canada last month showed how far the housing market has rebounded since the beginning of the year," says Dale Ripplinger, president of the Canadian Real Estate.
"As we predicted last April, says he, the upturn in the residential resale market has enabled all of the Canadian economy out of recession."
The recovery will by cons side effects, said Gregory Klump, chief economist of the association. "The houses become less affordable in the market as the overall economy improves, and the group of buyers who will be eligible for funding will be fewer."
France: rising real estate prices in 2010 for Century 21
For 2010, an increase of between 1% and 3% in property prices is plausible, 'said Laurent Vimont this morning, the president of Century 21 in the columns of the daily Les Echos.
According to him, this upward trend will be fueled by interest rates of mortgages that are less than 4%.
He keeps his distance from the scenario that economists have a continued decline in housing prices over several years because they're obscure the psychological character related to any property purchase '.
Laurent Vimont said that 'the stone allows French to protect themselves from the crisis' and the sudden unemployment are for the purchase of property that appears as' the best way to protect his family as they have a job and thus access to credit '.
Finally, he tells Echos, the housing market currently has a deficit of 51,000 homes in the former, which combined with a strong desire to buy, will necessarily raise prices.
According to him, this upward trend will be fueled by interest rates of mortgages that are less than 4%.
He keeps his distance from the scenario that economists have a continued decline in housing prices over several years because they're obscure the psychological character related to any property purchase '.
Laurent Vimont said that 'the stone allows French to protect themselves from the crisis' and the sudden unemployment are for the purchase of property that appears as' the best way to protect his family as they have a job and thus access to credit '.
Finally, he tells Echos, the housing market currently has a deficit of 51,000 homes in the former, which combined with a strong desire to buy, will necessarily raise prices.
samedi 12 décembre 2009
Estate leisure: the Club Med part in the conquest of China
Club Med has just announced that its first ski village in China will soon open in winter 2010, Yabuli, the main ski resort in the country. In addition, five other villages, three resorts, should be achieved by 2015.
"China, a major growth driver for the Club Med, with a potential of more than 200,000 customers in China in 2015, could then represent the 2nd market after France," said Henri Giscard d'Estaing, Chairman and CEO of Club Mediterranee.
All projects will be developed by management, in close relation with local investors who will own walls.
Club Med relies on two important factors in its efforts to make China a growth area. On the one hand, this year the number of Chinese customers in the villages of the Asian Club has increased by 23% compared to 2008, reaching 23,000 people. With 142 euros per day, your rate of these customers was greater than that of the French and Americans.
On the other hand, the group enjoys a high reputation among customers upscale Chinese. "The image of Club Med is the best among the brands that have not yet hotel presence in China," said a statement from the group.
"China, a major growth driver for the Club Med, with a potential of more than 200,000 customers in China in 2015, could then represent the 2nd market after France," said Henri Giscard d'Estaing, Chairman and CEO of Club Mediterranee.
All projects will be developed by management, in close relation with local investors who will own walls.
Club Med relies on two important factors in its efforts to make China a growth area. On the one hand, this year the number of Chinese customers in the villages of the Asian Club has increased by 23% compared to 2008, reaching 23,000 people. With 142 euros per day, your rate of these customers was greater than that of the French and Americans.
On the other hand, the group enjoys a high reputation among customers upscale Chinese. "The image of Club Med is the best among the brands that have not yet hotel presence in China," said a statement from the group.
The buildings of the French melted 200 billion in 2009
If against all expectations, the heritage of French will not finally fell in 2009, despite the real estate will be: what is the basis of estimates and projections for the years 2009 and 2010 that the agency has forecast economic BIPE presented to members dee Market Observatory of the Savings and Credit (OMEC) December 3. At some 10,200 billion euros at year-end 2009, total assets is slightly above its level of earlier this year, which was cons down by almost 3% in 2008.
Declining house prices showed in 2009 an unrealized loss well above 200 billion euros, but it was nevertheless restrained by the slowing of the decline in the second half of the year. These losses should therefore be more than offset the one hand, the gains appeared on the financial wealth due to the rebound in stock markets that emerged in the second quarter of the year (about 90 billion), on the other hand, new investment in housing (a little over 70 billion) and new financial investments (nearly 120 billion).
In front of the maintenance of their assets in 2009 (final 0.6%), the liability of the French continued to grow but at a rate below 3%, so growth is very slow compared to growth in two figures recorded during the period 2004-2007. The report of the passive income households continues to grow slightly and approaching 75%, but remains well below levels seen just before the exit of crisis in countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Denmark, countries in which this report still reached values between 110 and 140%, indicates the BIPE.
It also states that in 2010 the re-growth of this heritage would be very modest because of the continued decline in house prices and stock performance despite very honorable.
It expects losses in real estate still relatively high, around 3% over the year. The growth of household liabilities would know, meanwhile, some momentum compared to 2009 and the report of passive income would cross the bar significantly when the 75% level after all still quite moderate.
Declining house prices showed in 2009 an unrealized loss well above 200 billion euros, but it was nevertheless restrained by the slowing of the decline in the second half of the year. These losses should therefore be more than offset the one hand, the gains appeared on the financial wealth due to the rebound in stock markets that emerged in the second quarter of the year (about 90 billion), on the other hand, new investment in housing (a little over 70 billion) and new financial investments (nearly 120 billion).
In front of the maintenance of their assets in 2009 (final 0.6%), the liability of the French continued to grow but at a rate below 3%, so growth is very slow compared to growth in two figures recorded during the period 2004-2007. The report of the passive income households continues to grow slightly and approaching 75%, but remains well below levels seen just before the exit of crisis in countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Denmark, countries in which this report still reached values between 110 and 140%, indicates the BIPE.
It also states that in 2010 the re-growth of this heritage would be very modest because of the continued decline in house prices and stock performance despite very honorable.
It expects losses in real estate still relatively high, around 3% over the year. The growth of household liabilities would know, meanwhile, some momentum compared to 2009 and the report of passive income would cross the bar significantly when the 75% level after all still quite moderate.
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