Real estate: prices flirting again with the highest level

The former real estate prices rise slightly in Q1 2010, according to Century 21. They are growing very strongly in Paris (+7.4%). Lower prices, linked to the crisis is almost erased.

The figures published today by Century 21, must be examined carefully. First because it is the first market participant to decide on price trends in Q1 2010 (FNAIM will do next week, when lawyers will, themselves, also next week, balance, but in 2009 only). Secondly, because it is a serious player: this network of agencies, selling prices are automatically filled by the field agencies, because these are the prices that are the basis for the commission paid to head network. So do not play with the numbers rising with Century 21. Better, inspectors will even twice a year, check in agencies that prices shown are correct. In these circumstances, we can say that the figures published today are the exact reflection of what happened in the Century 21 agencies in the first quarter of 2010. Can we therefore extrapolate these figures to the whole market? A priori, no, 900 Century 21 agencies weigh only 8% of total business done by realtors. It is however, a good indication of what is happening now on the market until the lawyers tell us more, five or six months.

Average prices per square meter of housing former recorded an increase of 6.97% over twelve months and a positive variation of 0.41% from Q4 2009 and Q1 2010, according to the memo on the economy published today by branch network Century 21. Course of regional disparities. The regions where prices had climbed over the second half of 2009 (+5.6% Franche-Comte, Basse-Normandie 7.3%, Haute-Normandie + 6%, Pays-de-la-Loire 4.5 %) are those where prices have declined most in the first quarter. "In these regions, the market was regulated automatically with, initially, an adjustment of volumes, which resulted in a second step, a rebalancing of prices," says one with Century 21, which concludes that "the dynamism of the real estate market is not so old that moderation of rising prices." They now flirting "with their highest levels, offsetting the decline with the crisis." As a result, Century 21 confirms its forecast earlier this year and reaffirms that the total price in the former should increase by 1% to 3% in 2010, if interest rates do not undergo augmentation.

Transactions on the rise and fall time of sale
"The activity is rising again, and this, whether for the home market or for those apartments," according to Century 21. In volume terms, the network is an increase of 7.86% of transactions at the national level over three months (+38.6% year on year). More good news: the average selling time shortened from 103 days in Q1 2009 to 89 days in Q1 2010, a trend that applies to the flats as for houses.
Very high prices in Paris

Looked at more closely, the disparities are apparent, with Paris, which continues to go it alone. The former real estate prices are "substantial increase, to 11.3% yoy and 7.4% between Q1 2010 and Q4 2009" by Century 21. This marked shift has hurt the market, which recorded a decrease in sales volumes of around 3.6% over the last three months (versus 36.5% a year). "The Paris market is also characterized by an LTV well below the national average (67% against 77.3% for the hexagon), and shorter durations of loans to approximately 16.9% over one year settle at 20.19 years, while they are relatively stable nationwide. This suggests that the Paris market is experiencing a return of more pronounced secondo buyers and AB +, which, being a wait, had abandoned the market in 2009, "says one with Century 21.

The trend is much less marked in the Paris suburbs, "with higher average prices per square meter of 5.4% between Q1 2010 and Q1 2009, and 1.07% between Q1 2010 and the last quarter 2009. By the same logic, the more moderate price developments allows the market "to experience strong momentum: + 42.2% in volume over a year.