The Chinese authorities are to require banks to disclose information before the end of June on the quality of their loan portfolios and to take steps to curb the credit risk to land developers, show Sunday Banking Regulatory Commission . The land prices have more than doubled last year in China and in Beijing, some land has reached record prices in recent months when they were bought by state-owned companies whose core business has nothing to do with real estate. The measures represent the latest step in the campaign launched by the Chinese authorities to curb the surge in bank lending and the housing prices, which may lead to an explosion of bad loans.
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est China. Afficher tous les articles
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est China. Afficher tous les articles
dimanche 11 avril 2010
vendredi 26 mars 2010
Risk bubble on Emerging?
A bubble in emerging markets is it really fear?
It is true that global growth is driven by emerging markets, whose weight in world GDP will soon be 50%. Alongside the weighting of emerging markets in global financial markets gradually caught up, which should encourage investors from developed markets to rebalance their portfolios to benefit from these regions structurally underweight. For now, their weightings in the indices remain significantly below their weight in world GDP.
The fear of formation of a bubble has its origins in the difficulties to detect: it finds the existence of a bubble until it bursts. As Alan Greenspan said: "Currently, economists are unable to provide a strong reversal of sentiment. A collapse in confidence is generally described as the bursting of a bubble, an event that becomes undeniable to post only. "
The TMT bubble has lasted seven years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 1200%, a cumulative outperformance versus the S & P 500 by nearly 1000% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 39%). The Japanese bubble lasted nine years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 500%, a cumulative outperformance versus the MSCI World index by almost 250% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 15%). The Asian Tigers bubble lasted three years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 630%, a cumulative outperformance versus the MSCI World Index by over 600% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 110%).
We compared this performance with that of emerging markets between 2001 and 2007 to determine if we could describe this latest speculative bubble: the rise of emerging markets has lasted six years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 400% or a cumulative outperformance of the MSCI World index by almost 350% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 28%). These performances are quite close to those of a bubble, and if it were a bubble, it has already exploded. But we never saw the formation of a bubble so soon after the breakup of the former.
So you do not feel that these markets are expensive?
In terms of fundamental value, it should be noted that the ratio P / BV (Price / book value, estimated in 2010) has remained broadly in line with historical levels since 2003, compared with estimates of ROE (Return on Equity) 2010. Furthermore, compared to other regions, the emerging market valuations are not excessive given the current ratio ROE. The ratio P / BV is not only a reflection of the value creation, but also the projected growth in the long term. With a ROE equal to that of the United States, emerging markets deserve a better value. It is easy to justify the current valuation of the MSCI Emergent, given its current profitability compared to other regions and because it is based neither on growth nor a hypothetical predictive performance.
On a quantitative basis, the existence of a bubble is not justified by the level, far from excessive valuations, or the dividend yield.
Recently, the Chinese growth and higher inflation expectations have led investors to fear a cycle of monetary tightening more aggressively than expected. Despite good economic statistics more and more analysts are concerned about the situation in China. Investors pessimistic crystallize their attention on China and often compare a hypothetical bubble Chinese Japanese bubble of the late 1980s. Indeed, the Japanese case is interesting because it is the latest example of the structural development of a country that has finally burst the bubble.
Can we baptize China the "new Japan"? In terms of valuations, the PEX 2010, Chinese A shares is estimated at about 18 now, against 70 in Japan during the bubble of the 1980s.
They talk about real estate bubble in China ...
The living space of urban Chinese has increased rapidly, reaching a level close to that of Singapore or Japan (30 m2 per capita). However, property investments are expected in cities: 200 million Chinese migrant workers and renovations are needed on the flats had been built hastily in the early 1980s.
In terms of access to housing, the ratio of the average price of a home divided by the annual income of a household is 10 in China (compared to 4 / 5 in most developed economies and 18 in Japan in 1990 ). Based on income buyers, the ratio is close to that of a developed economy. The main problem is that the offer was for the premium segment while the needs of the general public are not satisfied. In 2010, property investment should remain strong, with growth in double digits. The government has taken measures to curb speculation: limit the ratio of debt buyers, improving bank risk management, increased supply of land and property in smaller cities and housing supply good market.
The risk of Chinese real estate sector is also limited by the method of financing property purchases: the price increase has been fueled by credit expansion, real estate is mostly financed by savings (1 / 4 buyers do not rely on debt).
The risk of formation of a bubble in Chinese real estate market is real but the bubble is far from being effective, it is the Chinese government to manage that risk to prevent the drift of prices. On the other hand, property values have already been corrected and a lot of negative news is already incorporated.
What concerns about the risk of overcapacity?
The risk of overcapacity is another problem China, highlighted by the most pessimistic. Investment in fixed assets accounted for 47% of GDP last year. China overinvestment and wasted it does? The country boasts of having registered the highest growth in twenty years of the variable total factor productivity (TFP). If China was as wasted as the Soviet Union, developments in productivity would be negative. Even in sectors with overcapacity, like steel, the country still operating at a capacity of 72% last year down cycle. In infrastructure, when compared with the situation in the United States a century ago, China, whose area is the same but whose population is three times greater, have 110 000 km of railways by 2010, against 400 000 in America in 1916.
Another way of looking at things is that overcapacity China affects the rest of the world. China is competitive, and markets are increasingly globalized, open a new factory in China will create excess capacity elsewhere in the world, in a country less competitive.
The main risk we identify currently China is the evolution of the U.S. dollar and the increased risk aversion, due to fears by the indebtedness of the states.
It is true that global growth is driven by emerging markets, whose weight in world GDP will soon be 50%. Alongside the weighting of emerging markets in global financial markets gradually caught up, which should encourage investors from developed markets to rebalance their portfolios to benefit from these regions structurally underweight. For now, their weightings in the indices remain significantly below their weight in world GDP.
The fear of formation of a bubble has its origins in the difficulties to detect: it finds the existence of a bubble until it bursts. As Alan Greenspan said: "Currently, economists are unable to provide a strong reversal of sentiment. A collapse in confidence is generally described as the bursting of a bubble, an event that becomes undeniable to post only. "
The TMT bubble has lasted seven years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 1200%, a cumulative outperformance versus the S & P 500 by nearly 1000% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 39%). The Japanese bubble lasted nine years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 500%, a cumulative outperformance versus the MSCI World index by almost 250% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 15%). The Asian Tigers bubble lasted three years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 630%, a cumulative outperformance versus the MSCI World Index by over 600% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 110%).
We compared this performance with that of emerging markets between 2001 and 2007 to determine if we could describe this latest speculative bubble: the rise of emerging markets has lasted six years, after recorded an absolute performance of over 400% or a cumulative outperformance of the MSCI World index by almost 350% (equivalent to an annualized outperformance of 28%). These performances are quite close to those of a bubble, and if it were a bubble, it has already exploded. But we never saw the formation of a bubble so soon after the breakup of the former.
So you do not feel that these markets are expensive?
In terms of fundamental value, it should be noted that the ratio P / BV (Price / book value, estimated in 2010) has remained broadly in line with historical levels since 2003, compared with estimates of ROE (Return on Equity) 2010. Furthermore, compared to other regions, the emerging market valuations are not excessive given the current ratio ROE. The ratio P / BV is not only a reflection of the value creation, but also the projected growth in the long term. With a ROE equal to that of the United States, emerging markets deserve a better value. It is easy to justify the current valuation of the MSCI Emergent, given its current profitability compared to other regions and because it is based neither on growth nor a hypothetical predictive performance.
On a quantitative basis, the existence of a bubble is not justified by the level, far from excessive valuations, or the dividend yield.
Recently, the Chinese growth and higher inflation expectations have led investors to fear a cycle of monetary tightening more aggressively than expected. Despite good economic statistics more and more analysts are concerned about the situation in China. Investors pessimistic crystallize their attention on China and often compare a hypothetical bubble Chinese Japanese bubble of the late 1980s. Indeed, the Japanese case is interesting because it is the latest example of the structural development of a country that has finally burst the bubble.
Can we baptize China the "new Japan"? In terms of valuations, the PEX 2010, Chinese A shares is estimated at about 18 now, against 70 in Japan during the bubble of the 1980s.
They talk about real estate bubble in China ...
The living space of urban Chinese has increased rapidly, reaching a level close to that of Singapore or Japan (30 m2 per capita). However, property investments are expected in cities: 200 million Chinese migrant workers and renovations are needed on the flats had been built hastily in the early 1980s.
In terms of access to housing, the ratio of the average price of a home divided by the annual income of a household is 10 in China (compared to 4 / 5 in most developed economies and 18 in Japan in 1990 ). Based on income buyers, the ratio is close to that of a developed economy. The main problem is that the offer was for the premium segment while the needs of the general public are not satisfied. In 2010, property investment should remain strong, with growth in double digits. The government has taken measures to curb speculation: limit the ratio of debt buyers, improving bank risk management, increased supply of land and property in smaller cities and housing supply good market.
The risk of Chinese real estate sector is also limited by the method of financing property purchases: the price increase has been fueled by credit expansion, real estate is mostly financed by savings (1 / 4 buyers do not rely on debt).
The risk of formation of a bubble in Chinese real estate market is real but the bubble is far from being effective, it is the Chinese government to manage that risk to prevent the drift of prices. On the other hand, property values have already been corrected and a lot of negative news is already incorporated.
What concerns about the risk of overcapacity?
The risk of overcapacity is another problem China, highlighted by the most pessimistic. Investment in fixed assets accounted for 47% of GDP last year. China overinvestment and wasted it does? The country boasts of having registered the highest growth in twenty years of the variable total factor productivity (TFP). If China was as wasted as the Soviet Union, developments in productivity would be negative. Even in sectors with overcapacity, like steel, the country still operating at a capacity of 72% last year down cycle. In infrastructure, when compared with the situation in the United States a century ago, China, whose area is the same but whose population is three times greater, have 110 000 km of railways by 2010, against 400 000 in America in 1916.
Another way of looking at things is that overcapacity China affects the rest of the world. China is competitive, and markets are increasingly globalized, open a new factory in China will create excess capacity elsewhere in the world, in a country less competitive.
The main risk we identify currently China is the evolution of the U.S. dollar and the increased risk aversion, due to fears by the indebtedness of the states.
mardi 23 mars 2010
China : Container housing
The high prices of real estate in southern China are pushing people towards a solution far less expensive containers converted into homes, reported Friday's People's Daily on its website.
Whole villages of container began to flourish around Shenzhen, the metropolis near Hong Kong, where a square meter can reach 20,000 yuan (2,000 euros), said the site. In comparison, a container of 18 square meters can be rented for the year to just over 2,000 yuan.
The containers, equipped with kitchens, toilets, bathrooms and windows, its very popular among the migrant workers or students. According to the website of People's Daily, the "fashion" has been launched in cities like New York or London.
Whole villages of container began to flourish around Shenzhen, the metropolis near Hong Kong, where a square meter can reach 20,000 yuan (2,000 euros), said the site. In comparison, a container of 18 square meters can be rented for the year to just over 2,000 yuan.
The containers, equipped with kitchens, toilets, bathrooms and windows, its very popular among the migrant workers or students. According to the website of People's Daily, the "fashion" has been launched in cities like New York or London.
vendredi 15 janvier 2010
China is worried about the housing market
Housing prices do not cease to rise in China, fueling concerns about an overheated property market. According to official figures, in December 2009, housing prices have increased by 7, 8% yoy and 1.5% compared to November 2009, reports the French newspaper People's Daily.
This surge in prices is becoming increasingly worrisome for the Chinese authorities who fear the creation of a housing bubble. The government had already outlined some steps to make credit less available habitat and prevent real estate speculation.
Moreover, the Chinese central bank has just raised the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
This surge in prices is becoming increasingly worrisome for the Chinese authorities who fear the creation of a housing bubble. The government had already outlined some steps to make credit less available habitat and prevent real estate speculation.
Moreover, the Chinese central bank has just raised the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
mercredi 23 décembre 2009
Should we fear a housing crash in Asia?
"Investors should sell their property values: a means to reduce the risk of explosion of a bubble in the wake of the outbreak last year, 155% of the real estate sector." The recommendation of the Morgan Stanley sounds like a point of caution: it is urgent to sell its real estate securities listed on the site of Shanghai!
Certainly, especially as an investor, you do not hold title to real Chinese groups, but since this is happening now outside of France may have implications for your investments, it becomes necessary keep abreast of trends in foreign markets.
China, Singapore, South Korea ... the housing bubble inflated in Asia
If the Chinese real estate are overvalued is that the real estate market of the Middle Kingdom continues to rise. "Recently, reports are increasing on soaring house prices in major Chinese cities, reports the China Daily Xinwen Chenbao. "In Changchun (North) and Nanning (southwest), house prices register record after record and meet peaks in Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou (south-east)."
China is not alone in facing such an increase in real estate. Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia are not far behind. In Singapore, sales of homes completed during the first seven months of the year were 2.3 times higher than in 2008 at the same time, especially in the capital, where real estate prices have increased d 'third.
In South Korea, the situation is almost identical house prices have risen steadily over the last five months in Seoul, prices were up 20% since early 2009.
Abundance of liquidity
Why such a housing boom in Asia (excluding Japan)? Many economists point to the abundance of liquidity issues, including recovery plans. Asian countries have turned the printing press and opened the credit tap.
In China, the country has not only implemented a recovery plan providing 4 000 MdsҰ (461 billion euros) but also left its banks allow up to 8 670 MdsҰ (849 billion euros) credits during the first nine months of the year. But a significant portion of these loans was invested in the stock market, especially in real estate. "Because of the decline in profitability over the past two years, some state enterprises engaged in manufacturing and exporting have decided to increase their investments in real estate," admits a Chinese official.
On the other hand, we must emphasize the impact of the arrival of foreign capital on the Asian property markets. The World Bank, "capital for an amount estimated at tens of billions of dollars have recently flocked to East Asia, which may cause a bubble in some stock and housing markets in the region. International investors and rely on a more rapid recovery of the most dynamic economy in the world, but also on a possible revaluation of the yuan. Meanwhile, housing prices continue to rise.
And if the bubble burst?
"The world would be very difficult," said Jacques Attali about the bubble forming in China. If a property crash occurred in this country, a second systemic crisis would be inevitable, with consequences far more serious for the economy and the wealth of investors.
Remember, because of the current crisis, the fortunes of five hundred French richest fell 27% in one year, depending on the site ladepeche.fr! But the likelihood of that crash remains low in the ten to fifteen years to come: China needed urban housing.
Today, its urbanization rate is 45%. To achieve a target of 65% by 2025, it will build each year, enough to accommodate between 15 and 20 million people. "This means that for ten to fifteen years, he must build each year a city as important as London or New York," said one Chinese sociologist. He added: "The program is part of urbanization in the Chinese strategy of development of domestic consumption."
Certainly, especially as an investor, you do not hold title to real Chinese groups, but since this is happening now outside of France may have implications for your investments, it becomes necessary keep abreast of trends in foreign markets.
China, Singapore, South Korea ... the housing bubble inflated in Asia
If the Chinese real estate are overvalued is that the real estate market of the Middle Kingdom continues to rise. "Recently, reports are increasing on soaring house prices in major Chinese cities, reports the China Daily Xinwen Chenbao. "In Changchun (North) and Nanning (southwest), house prices register record after record and meet peaks in Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou (south-east)."
China is not alone in facing such an increase in real estate. Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia are not far behind. In Singapore, sales of homes completed during the first seven months of the year were 2.3 times higher than in 2008 at the same time, especially in the capital, where real estate prices have increased d 'third.
In South Korea, the situation is almost identical house prices have risen steadily over the last five months in Seoul, prices were up 20% since early 2009.
Abundance of liquidity
Why such a housing boom in Asia (excluding Japan)? Many economists point to the abundance of liquidity issues, including recovery plans. Asian countries have turned the printing press and opened the credit tap.
In China, the country has not only implemented a recovery plan providing 4 000 MdsҰ (461 billion euros) but also left its banks allow up to 8 670 MdsҰ (849 billion euros) credits during the first nine months of the year. But a significant portion of these loans was invested in the stock market, especially in real estate. "Because of the decline in profitability over the past two years, some state enterprises engaged in manufacturing and exporting have decided to increase their investments in real estate," admits a Chinese official.
On the other hand, we must emphasize the impact of the arrival of foreign capital on the Asian property markets. The World Bank, "capital for an amount estimated at tens of billions of dollars have recently flocked to East Asia, which may cause a bubble in some stock and housing markets in the region. International investors and rely on a more rapid recovery of the most dynamic economy in the world, but also on a possible revaluation of the yuan. Meanwhile, housing prices continue to rise.
And if the bubble burst?
"The world would be very difficult," said Jacques Attali about the bubble forming in China. If a property crash occurred in this country, a second systemic crisis would be inevitable, with consequences far more serious for the economy and the wealth of investors.
Remember, because of the current crisis, the fortunes of five hundred French richest fell 27% in one year, depending on the site ladepeche.fr! But the likelihood of that crash remains low in the ten to fifteen years to come: China needed urban housing.
Today, its urbanization rate is 45%. To achieve a target of 65% by 2025, it will build each year, enough to accommodate between 15 and 20 million people. "This means that for ten to fifteen years, he must build each year a city as important as London or New York," said one Chinese sociologist. He added: "The program is part of urbanization in the Chinese strategy of development of domestic consumption."
samedi 12 décembre 2009
Estate leisure: the Club Med part in the conquest of China
Club Med has just announced that its first ski village in China will soon open in winter 2010, Yabuli, the main ski resort in the country. In addition, five other villages, three resorts, should be achieved by 2015.
"China, a major growth driver for the Club Med, with a potential of more than 200,000 customers in China in 2015, could then represent the 2nd market after France," said Henri Giscard d'Estaing, Chairman and CEO of Club Mediterranee.
All projects will be developed by management, in close relation with local investors who will own walls.
Club Med relies on two important factors in its efforts to make China a growth area. On the one hand, this year the number of Chinese customers in the villages of the Asian Club has increased by 23% compared to 2008, reaching 23,000 people. With 142 euros per day, your rate of these customers was greater than that of the French and Americans.
On the other hand, the group enjoys a high reputation among customers upscale Chinese. "The image of Club Med is the best among the brands that have not yet hotel presence in China," said a statement from the group.
"China, a major growth driver for the Club Med, with a potential of more than 200,000 customers in China in 2015, could then represent the 2nd market after France," said Henri Giscard d'Estaing, Chairman and CEO of Club Mediterranee.
All projects will be developed by management, in close relation with local investors who will own walls.
Club Med relies on two important factors in its efforts to make China a growth area. On the one hand, this year the number of Chinese customers in the villages of the Asian Club has increased by 23% compared to 2008, reaching 23,000 people. With 142 euros per day, your rate of these customers was greater than that of the French and Americans.
On the other hand, the group enjoys a high reputation among customers upscale Chinese. "The image of Club Med is the best among the brands that have not yet hotel presence in China," said a statement from the group.
mardi 10 novembre 2009
Suspicion about the overheated real estate in several Chinese cities
The current state of the continuous rise in sales prices of homes in several major Chinese cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen concerned and worried everyone. The weekly "Liaowang (Observation) issued to that subject an article indicating that one of the main reasons why house prices in these cities continue to beat all records of the past despite the economy China is still in the recovery of the slope is the great movie recently on the market of selling luxury homes and luxurious, while the sellers of these upscale homes have all without exception played the 'map investment ', that is to say that the so-called' nature of scarcity and failure ', who plays for the investment value, is the main reason for the sale of housing prices high.
Whether in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other cities whose housing markets are in turmoil this year after several rounds of price increases, housing prices are currently at a very high level and is close to d 'reach the historic summit. Guo Shiping, Director of the Institute of International Finance at the University of Shenzhen, and other specialists in the field have indicated that there are great suspicions against housing prices in these cities because they them as detached from the main aspect of our economy. Firstly, the Chinese economy is currently still in the recovery phase and it does not yet know a warming track. GDP growth reached 7.1% during the first half of this year, while the price of housing is far greater than GDP growth, which has a tendency to overheat. One can cite the example of Shenzhen, compared with house prices in January, prices rose by 64.3% in August, while at present, Shenzhen is still finding difficulties in its exports and manufacturing industries, which proves that he has not gotten rid of the crisis and its overall economic situation can not withstand so overheated property market.
Then, in those cities where house prices have broken all records, the volume of the successful sale of homes experiencing a decline in general and a sizeable reduction. The data clearly show that in August the total number and total area of new homes sold amounted respectively to 4114 units and 386,000 square meters, a decrease of almost 20% and 25% from the previous month and is continuing the downward trend that began last May on the real estate market in the city.
As the market situation is currently supported by investment, environment specialists interviewed without exception expressed their worry and concern. Guo Shiping think monetary policy is likely to change and that if this policy will be tightened, it is possible that housing held by many investors will be sold in large quantities on the market, and this time, people who bought homes at the current high prices would then face the loss of their property and at the same time, banks accumulate large risks.
Experts have said that 'high land prices' first lead of the rising 'stock price' and then it will be that land prices will increase even more.
As for Yougene Qian, Director of land transactions in the city of Nanchang, he said that housing prices in many cities have seen an increase this year "by leaps and bounds" and that the increase will be difficult to impetuous monitor and maintain, which shows that the Chinese real estate market has not yet reached maturity and did not accede to the circular stage sound. The frequent occurrence of 'land kings' is no good, because some are higher compared to prices of homes located nearby. Besides their ability to create this rising house prices, the large amount of unused funds are sleeping in the property sector and this is a great loss for the macroeconomy.
According to him, there are rules and provisions hidden and latent whatsoever in the land market or whether the real estate market. Public companies have no fear of high land prices, because their goods are in their capital accounts and provided they had any land they could then apply for funding to carry out a project, while the losses have incurred would be offset elsewhere. As for listed companies, it is necessary and important for them to have good success in order to keep prices of their shares, and conversely, developers will be forced to spend more to acquire more land . Thus, real estate companies listed will come in a vicious circle characterized by 'high land prices - high prices of shares - land prices even higher. " "Public companies currently have no problem of funds, publicly traded companies can use money from punters. Large systematic risks caused by land prices and high prices will ultimately be borne by financial institutions and stock markets and anyway, it will always be ordinary people who foot the bill and who will suffer. "
Lin Zengjie, director of studies at PhD Candidate, Department of Land Management of the Renmin University of China, said that in the current situation where house prices have beaten once again records the past, this marks the growth of the housing bubble. Given the macroeconomic situation, including the 'three horses' causing the Chinese economy in recent months, exports continued to register negative growth, while the CPI (index of consumer prices) continues its decline and income residents has not increased much. For now, the main problem is that the storm created by speculative investment in the property market is still strong, but it certainly will not last long.
Experts have said the current price of new records created by the housing prices going against the tide certainly exert a considerable pressure on improving the welfare of the population and that this could once again reach the sensitive nerve that is the gap between rich and poor. And especially the phenomena of recent times, such as agitation in the sale of luxury homes and lavish advertisements on wealth and fortune, selling tens of thousands of yuan, the rich layers of society who spend one time tens of millions who are likely to generate dissatisfaction and discontent of the masses of the weaker sectors of society and the evolution of the situation deserves to be taken into account in particular.
Whether in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other cities whose housing markets are in turmoil this year after several rounds of price increases, housing prices are currently at a very high level and is close to d 'reach the historic summit. Guo Shiping, Director of the Institute of International Finance at the University of Shenzhen, and other specialists in the field have indicated that there are great suspicions against housing prices in these cities because they them as detached from the main aspect of our economy. Firstly, the Chinese economy is currently still in the recovery phase and it does not yet know a warming track. GDP growth reached 7.1% during the first half of this year, while the price of housing is far greater than GDP growth, which has a tendency to overheat. One can cite the example of Shenzhen, compared with house prices in January, prices rose by 64.3% in August, while at present, Shenzhen is still finding difficulties in its exports and manufacturing industries, which proves that he has not gotten rid of the crisis and its overall economic situation can not withstand so overheated property market.
Then, in those cities where house prices have broken all records, the volume of the successful sale of homes experiencing a decline in general and a sizeable reduction. The data clearly show that in August the total number and total area of new homes sold amounted respectively to 4114 units and 386,000 square meters, a decrease of almost 20% and 25% from the previous month and is continuing the downward trend that began last May on the real estate market in the city.
As the market situation is currently supported by investment, environment specialists interviewed without exception expressed their worry and concern. Guo Shiping think monetary policy is likely to change and that if this policy will be tightened, it is possible that housing held by many investors will be sold in large quantities on the market, and this time, people who bought homes at the current high prices would then face the loss of their property and at the same time, banks accumulate large risks.
Experts have said that 'high land prices' first lead of the rising 'stock price' and then it will be that land prices will increase even more.
As for Yougene Qian, Director of land transactions in the city of Nanchang, he said that housing prices in many cities have seen an increase this year "by leaps and bounds" and that the increase will be difficult to impetuous monitor and maintain, which shows that the Chinese real estate market has not yet reached maturity and did not accede to the circular stage sound. The frequent occurrence of 'land kings' is no good, because some are higher compared to prices of homes located nearby. Besides their ability to create this rising house prices, the large amount of unused funds are sleeping in the property sector and this is a great loss for the macroeconomy.
According to him, there are rules and provisions hidden and latent whatsoever in the land market or whether the real estate market. Public companies have no fear of high land prices, because their goods are in their capital accounts and provided they had any land they could then apply for funding to carry out a project, while the losses have incurred would be offset elsewhere. As for listed companies, it is necessary and important for them to have good success in order to keep prices of their shares, and conversely, developers will be forced to spend more to acquire more land . Thus, real estate companies listed will come in a vicious circle characterized by 'high land prices - high prices of shares - land prices even higher. " "Public companies currently have no problem of funds, publicly traded companies can use money from punters. Large systematic risks caused by land prices and high prices will ultimately be borne by financial institutions and stock markets and anyway, it will always be ordinary people who foot the bill and who will suffer. "
Lin Zengjie, director of studies at PhD Candidate, Department of Land Management of the Renmin University of China, said that in the current situation where house prices have beaten once again records the past, this marks the growth of the housing bubble. Given the macroeconomic situation, including the 'three horses' causing the Chinese economy in recent months, exports continued to register negative growth, while the CPI (index of consumer prices) continues its decline and income residents has not increased much. For now, the main problem is that the storm created by speculative investment in the property market is still strong, but it certainly will not last long.
Experts have said the current price of new records created by the housing prices going against the tide certainly exert a considerable pressure on improving the welfare of the population and that this could once again reach the sensitive nerve that is the gap between rich and poor. And especially the phenomena of recent times, such as agitation in the sale of luxury homes and lavish advertisements on wealth and fortune, selling tens of thousands of yuan, the rich layers of society who spend one time tens of millions who are likely to generate dissatisfaction and discontent of the masses of the weaker sectors of society and the evolution of the situation deserves to be taken into account in particular.
Chinese billionaires get richer
Byzantium is for the 400 wealthiest Chinese whose wealth swelled to $ 141 billion this year, according to Forbes magazine. They now weigh 314 billion dollars, against 173 a year ago! The number of Chinese billionaires in dollars has risen from 24 last year to 79, knowing that the classification has been revised upwards and it counts more than the fortunes of at least 300 million dollars against 200 million a year earlier. Soaring Awards Hong Kong and Shanghai, which rose by 56% and 69% respectively, there is also something unique in this enrichment.
While other billionaires have seen their fortunes melt and seriously decrease their number, the richest Chinese are proud of this sudden rebound in their stock after the financial crisis of 2008. Although still a minority compared to their American peers, the Chinese billionaires get richer faster, said a senior Forbes, Russell Flannery. Also, the magazine is very optimistic about the future and potential of the Chinese stock market, announcing that "the best is yet to come. More than ever, new opportunities open to Chinese entrepreneurs determined to seize them and with them, others will build fortunes. "
Who are these Chinese billionaires?
Number one was long dubbed the "King of the battery" for his aptly named company Build Your Dream (BYD), had initially specialized in batteries for mobile phones. Fourteen years after having built his company, Wang Chuanfu (photo-cons, Forbes) has become the richest man in China with a fortune of 5.8 billion dollars. And behold, that takes 6 years to build automobiles including electric cars. His goal: to become number one automobile in China in 2015 ... and the world in 2025.
Then comes Liu Yongxing (photo-cons, Forbes), tops the list last year, he is the CEO of private farm group East Hope and shareholder in China Minsheng Bank, Minsheng Insurance and Brighty Dairy.
Zong Qinghou, CEO of Wahaha Food Group, ranks third.
A woman comes in 5th position, Yang Huiyan, who holds shares of Country Gardens, a real estate conglomerate founded by his father, Yang Guoqiang, mason training and become one of the richest property developers in China.
These self-made man "Chinese who built their fortunes in the years 1990-2000 we suggest that there is a" Chinese dream "next to the" American dream ".
While other billionaires have seen their fortunes melt and seriously decrease their number, the richest Chinese are proud of this sudden rebound in their stock after the financial crisis of 2008. Although still a minority compared to their American peers, the Chinese billionaires get richer faster, said a senior Forbes, Russell Flannery. Also, the magazine is very optimistic about the future and potential of the Chinese stock market, announcing that "the best is yet to come. More than ever, new opportunities open to Chinese entrepreneurs determined to seize them and with them, others will build fortunes. "
Who are these Chinese billionaires?
Number one was long dubbed the "King of the battery" for his aptly named company Build Your Dream (BYD), had initially specialized in batteries for mobile phones. Fourteen years after having built his company, Wang Chuanfu (photo-cons, Forbes) has become the richest man in China with a fortune of 5.8 billion dollars. And behold, that takes 6 years to build automobiles including electric cars. His goal: to become number one automobile in China in 2015 ... and the world in 2025.
Then comes Liu Yongxing (photo-cons, Forbes), tops the list last year, he is the CEO of private farm group East Hope and shareholder in China Minsheng Bank, Minsheng Insurance and Brighty Dairy.
Zong Qinghou, CEO of Wahaha Food Group, ranks third.
A woman comes in 5th position, Yang Huiyan, who holds shares of Country Gardens, a real estate conglomerate founded by his father, Yang Guoqiang, mason training and become one of the richest property developers in China.
These self-made man "Chinese who built their fortunes in the years 1990-2000 we suggest that there is a" Chinese dream "next to the" American dream ".
lundi 9 novembre 2009
China wants to rein in developers
China, if one believes the "China Daily", close to the government seems determined to fight against the forced demolition of homes for real estate projects. To call for new measures, the China Daily in an editorial cites two recent cases: the death sentence of a real estate developer Wanzhou, accused of murdering a man who opposed the destruction of the house his parents, and was sentenced to three years imprisonment suspended for an owner who had killed one person, sent by a developer to break and enter his house. For the paper, these two cases are the result of a very long conflict between promoters and families whose homes are in construction zones. But the newspaper suggests, the aim is to find "a platform for developers and residents to negotiate as equals." The Chinese daily abnormal judge that proponents make huge profits, while residents do not pay that compensation, insufficient to buy a new home. Moreover, it is necessary to take measures to prevent property developers to resort to illegal means to destroy the houses. "Requiring developers to comply with rules, is also in the interest of good real estate development" in China, says the China Daily.
vendredi 6 novembre 2009
Real Estate : China housing labelised Disney explode
The Chinese real estate market experienced since last February a real boom, encouraged by various government measures to support economic development and investment. In the Shanghai region, the estate has seen a combine weight of at least unusual: Disney.
The Chinese developers already displayed a wide smile (China Vanke, the leader in construction, has seen sales take off more than 95% in October), the hilarity could soon win, including those established in Shanghai and its environs. On 4 November, the Chinese government has in effect endorsed the implementation of a Disneyland in the region. For business owners, the announcement had the effect of a bomb whose effects have not been waiting. In the hours that followed the decision to allow the Disney theme park to settle the land and property for sale near saw applications flow and inflate their prices dramatically. The owner of land would have sold well at a price 4 times higher than it originally sought.
In 2007, the city of Chuansha (nearby Shanghai to host the park), an individual could afford a new property for 2000 to 3000 yuan per square meter (between 197 and 295 euros). Rumors of a possible settlement of Disney have changed the outlook of real estate in the region to establish the price per square foot between 9000 and 11,000 yuan in February 2009 (between 885 and 1082 euros). The Disney dream come true now, those prices now are around the 17,000 yuan (1,672 euros).
"If Disney moved here, the old district Chuansha will be rebuilt. It's good for everybody and it will boost the industry "welcomes owner. Although the winners of the moment, the developers show some caution, however, explains a local real estate agent: "the question is not whether to sell or not. Since the news was confirmed, no one knows to what extent the presence of Disneyland will affect housing prices. So the developers prefer to wait and see what happens. " In this context, some developers have even seen fit to temporarily halt their sales.
The Chinese developers already displayed a wide smile (China Vanke, the leader in construction, has seen sales take off more than 95% in October), the hilarity could soon win, including those established in Shanghai and its environs. On 4 November, the Chinese government has in effect endorsed the implementation of a Disneyland in the region. For business owners, the announcement had the effect of a bomb whose effects have not been waiting. In the hours that followed the decision to allow the Disney theme park to settle the land and property for sale near saw applications flow and inflate their prices dramatically. The owner of land would have sold well at a price 4 times higher than it originally sought.
In 2007, the city of Chuansha (nearby Shanghai to host the park), an individual could afford a new property for 2000 to 3000 yuan per square meter (between 197 and 295 euros). Rumors of a possible settlement of Disney have changed the outlook of real estate in the region to establish the price per square foot between 9000 and 11,000 yuan in February 2009 (between 885 and 1082 euros). The Disney dream come true now, those prices now are around the 17,000 yuan (1,672 euros).
"If Disney moved here, the old district Chuansha will be rebuilt. It's good for everybody and it will boost the industry "welcomes owner. Although the winners of the moment, the developers show some caution, however, explains a local real estate agent: "the question is not whether to sell or not. Since the news was confirmed, no one knows to what extent the presence of Disneyland will affect housing prices. So the developers prefer to wait and see what happens. " In this context, some developers have even seen fit to temporarily halt their sales.
samedi 31 octobre 2009
Chinese property bubble confirmed
China is currently experiencing a population explosion. This requires that created many jobs and therefore have a strong economic growth (above 8%). But across the population explosion causes a surge in property prices with a real estate bubble, a paradox in crisis global real estate.
The property prices have therefore taken 30% since the beginning of the year with a peak of a recent increase of 17% in one week! A record simply. But attention will be harder the fall ...
More on: Explosion of real estate in Shanghai
The property prices have therefore taken 30% since the beginning of the year with a peak of a recent increase of 17% in one week! A record simply. But attention will be harder the fall ...
More on: Explosion of real estate in Shanghai
Inscription à :
Articles (Atom)
Articles
