The site Zillow.com was launched in early February 2006, knows a great success.
Zillow.com is a new site that evaluates free property prices in real time on the Internet. The site allows the user to visualize regions of the United States using satellite pictures and zoom in on neighborhoods of their choice. In real time, it is possible to know for each house or each building price per square meter property. Data on the housing tax carried, date of construction, estimated prices, number of rooms, it is possible to access a wealth of information. With 60 million properties in its database, the site should change the approach has been the particular property. It is now possible to learn about a property or neighborhood without going through an estate agency: "So far, it was difficult to determine the value of a home, either yours or that you want in to acquire, "said Rich Barton, CEO of Zillow.com
vendredi 6 novembre 2009
USA : Increase in mortgage applications
Applications for home mortgages in the United States are distributed ahead last week. According to figures released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the initial loan applications rose 8.2% over seven days, adjusted, after a decline of 12% a fortnight ago. Applications for refinancing loans, which had declined over 16% two weeks ago, show an increase of 14.5%.
Lower prices ends
Since 2007, the poster of the estate is Back to the Future every night: it is three years after a decade of crazy up the stone market is a radical return to the past. Several months of falling prices, falling volumes of transactions and loans have been falling to its level in late 2005. But we got to the end of the film in major cities, the decline in sales, and price, is behind us.
For the moment, nothing noticeable yet in official statistics. It was not until December to have confirmation that the decline is over. In late 2006, already, while the data were not available, Challenges took the risk to announce, with two months in advance, the end of the price increase in headline: "The summit is reached.
If Challenges take the lead, is that in this sector, data are very long to collect (see interview below cons). The most reliable, those of notaries have between three and five months behind reality. Suffice to say that when they are exploited long ago that the market no longer reflects the image they give in! Now say that these statistics are available? That market remains depressed, as trading volumes drop by 30% over one year and that prices should fall by 8 to 9% over 2009, annual rate, after declining 10% last year.
Recovery started
By going on field interviewing individuals that are performing operations, questioning the real estate agents, solicitors, developers and bankers, we found a different landscape: the activity has already been restarted a few months.
Certainly, in the outskirts of towns in the country, "the situation remains tense, with declines ranging up to 20% in two years," says Christopher Pinault, Director General of the Credit Foncier. But elsewhere, in the most vibrant market, prices have declined steadily. And in some areas in Paris intra-muros, in its suburbs in the inner cities of the province, they begin to recover.
In Paris, for example, prices rose 3.5% over the last three months. And in Courbevoie, Hauts-de-Seine, "the buyers have regained confidence at some point decide to buy before they sold," explains Fabrice Cochet, head of the Agence de la Gare. A few miles away at Asnieres, Thierry Gondouin, Guy Network Hiccups, made the same observation: "The demand is strong, we lack today of goods to sell."
The recovery also affects the downtowns of several major cities. In Lyon, between the Saône and Rhône, Fnaim observed since July, a sharp increase in the number of transactions, and even higher prices. In September, rates for the former Lyon have increased by 1% and even 3.6% if compared to prices last winter. Ditto for the new, which shows prices up 5% over the year to 3 640 euros per m2 on average.
Request reassured
In Marseilles, the increase is less straightforward, but since the turn of the summer, demand picked up again. This does not mean that potential purchasers are buying anything at any price: they must see a real drop in prices in a neighborhood they decide to return. Many sellers have not yet understood. In Rennes, for example, they are "too greedy", sorry Eric Robiolle in its Lices Agency, which continues to discourage potential buyers, but many ...
Bernard Cadeau, president Orpi, see also, throughout its network, a return of buyers. "We wanted to remain cautious at first, but it is now confirmed: the market wakes up. Moreover, some of our agencies have made in July and August its best sales since opening. "Wet Michel, professor at Paris X-Nanterre and connoisseur of the industry, confirms this:" Prices have been falling early in the second quarter. We will see in January when we have statistics notaries, says he. These show that between the second and third quarter of this year's activity has sharply increased, probably over 15%. "This is not a flash in the pan: for Christopher Pinault, the Credit Foncier, 'increasing needs, coupled with lower stocks of new goods and a decrease of homes coming onto the market will necessarily lead to increased demand in the former. "
Credit revived
The reasons for the return of buyers are partly psychological. "They found the expected decline has not arrived. As the financial crisis seems over, they have recovered to make plans. And we saw them back in our study, analysis master Robert Panhard, notary in Paris.
But the return of buyers is also due for a real estate agent in Paris called "double" effect Kiss Cool "of real estate: a layer of lower prices and a layer of lower lending rates" ... For the improvement on the credit front is spectacular. Last year, banks were holding tightly to tap their credit. But since the summer, they have wide open. As Patrick Werner, CEO of La Banque Postale, the only bank that had continued to pay during the period, "it is not we who have changed their policy, they are our competitors!".
A change is explained: after their misadventures in the financial markets, banks have turned in their traditional clientele of individuals. They struggle to attract new customers. Moreover, adds Joel Boumendil, CEO of ACE, mortgage broker, "they realize they will struggle to achieve their business objectives in credits before the end of the year. So they are working extra hard. " And borrowers benefit. "In September, says Sandrine ALLONIA, design manager of online broker Meilleurtaux.com, we have registered some 50,000 applications for credit, against 38,000 in 2008 and 40 000 the previous year, before the real estate crisis. And the situation in October was interviewed on the same model. "
Banking institutions are more lenders to borrow themselves cheap. Result: their lending rates had their biggest drop since ... fifteen years, falling to 3.95% on average (see p. 90, credit conditions for banks). For Geoffroy Bragadir, spokesman Empruntis.com loan broker, "it is difficult to imagine the effect this fall on borrowers, but one year power purchase real estate seems to have improved Deplus 20 %.
An example: BNP Paribas offers for a loan of 200 000 over fifteen years, 3.84%. In our number "Featured Property" Fan last, at the same time, the rate for the same loan was 5.25%. In one year, the bank has lowered its offer by 1.4 points. The effect on interest is spectacular. In the first case, our borrower pays more than 73,300 euros in interest over the term of the loan. In the second, it should more than 99,300. In one year, it saved 26,000 euros in interest!
The gain in purchasing power is even more important taking into account the lower price. Imagine a couple who could repay, in 1998, a monthly payment of 1,500 euros. This couple could have time to pay the equivalent of the monthly payment, an accommodation of 184 m2. In late 2007, given rising prices and soaring interest rates, its purchasing power had fallen in m2 to 79 m2, two times less than in 1999. This year, it increased to 93 m2. This means that in one year lower rates and lower prices have combined to enable him to afford additional 14 m2.
Even with a smaller budget, this increase in purchasing power is significant. Of Toulouse, for example, which last year had a capacity of monthly payment of 1,000 euros, 150,000 could borrow euros and buy a 3-rooms (54 m2 exactly) to 2 790 euros per m2. Today, these same Toulouse can borrow EUR 166000 and buy a 4-rooms of 65 m2 (in 2497 euros per m2) ...
In nine, this effect is accentuated because the buyers will benefit from several additional aid: VAT at 5.5% (against 19.6% in the former) in some neighborhoods, the Pass-land, the loan helped to buy the land then the walls and finally the zero-interest loan, which covers about 60% of buyers and the amount is doubled until mid-2010. "By adding these measures to lower prices and interest rates, the gain in purchasing power of buyers in the new can reach 50%," said Olivier Mitterrand, CEO of developer The New Builders, which expects sales in 2009 higher sales in 2007.
Coeur market blocked
This does not mean that all problems that have caused the collapse in sales two years ago have disappeared. The main point of concern, analysis Sebastien de Lafond, CEO Meilleursagents.com, "is that the natural heart of the market, the family home, remains blocked because the middle classes are reluctant to return." A heart that still represents more than 100,000 transactions each year. So, for now, says Christian Musset, President Cogedim Sale, "the market is very concentrated on help (first-time buyers) and the very wealthy."
Why the middle classes are reluctant to buy? Just because they are, mostly, selling their property before buying another. But banks have opened the floodgates of credit, but careful not those of the closed bridge loan. The Second-time buyers (those who sell before you buy) will probably not many for some time. For Laurent Vimont, president of Century 21, this is changing: "In one quarter, says he, the number of buyers increased by 21% nationally and 35% on Paris."
But competitors do not detect tremor: the real estate market of the family home will probably be the last to unjam in France. For it is released, observes Olivier Mitterrand, "should be an economic recovery, particularly a decline in unemployment." But that is another story.
For the moment, nothing noticeable yet in official statistics. It was not until December to have confirmation that the decline is over. In late 2006, already, while the data were not available, Challenges took the risk to announce, with two months in advance, the end of the price increase in headline: "The summit is reached.
If Challenges take the lead, is that in this sector, data are very long to collect (see interview below cons). The most reliable, those of notaries have between three and five months behind reality. Suffice to say that when they are exploited long ago that the market no longer reflects the image they give in! Now say that these statistics are available? That market remains depressed, as trading volumes drop by 30% over one year and that prices should fall by 8 to 9% over 2009, annual rate, after declining 10% last year.
Recovery started
By going on field interviewing individuals that are performing operations, questioning the real estate agents, solicitors, developers and bankers, we found a different landscape: the activity has already been restarted a few months.
Certainly, in the outskirts of towns in the country, "the situation remains tense, with declines ranging up to 20% in two years," says Christopher Pinault, Director General of the Credit Foncier. But elsewhere, in the most vibrant market, prices have declined steadily. And in some areas in Paris intra-muros, in its suburbs in the inner cities of the province, they begin to recover.
In Paris, for example, prices rose 3.5% over the last three months. And in Courbevoie, Hauts-de-Seine, "the buyers have regained confidence at some point decide to buy before they sold," explains Fabrice Cochet, head of the Agence de la Gare. A few miles away at Asnieres, Thierry Gondouin, Guy Network Hiccups, made the same observation: "The demand is strong, we lack today of goods to sell."
The recovery also affects the downtowns of several major cities. In Lyon, between the Saône and Rhône, Fnaim observed since July, a sharp increase in the number of transactions, and even higher prices. In September, rates for the former Lyon have increased by 1% and even 3.6% if compared to prices last winter. Ditto for the new, which shows prices up 5% over the year to 3 640 euros per m2 on average.
Request reassured
In Marseilles, the increase is less straightforward, but since the turn of the summer, demand picked up again. This does not mean that potential purchasers are buying anything at any price: they must see a real drop in prices in a neighborhood they decide to return. Many sellers have not yet understood. In Rennes, for example, they are "too greedy", sorry Eric Robiolle in its Lices Agency, which continues to discourage potential buyers, but many ...
Bernard Cadeau, president Orpi, see also, throughout its network, a return of buyers. "We wanted to remain cautious at first, but it is now confirmed: the market wakes up. Moreover, some of our agencies have made in July and August its best sales since opening. "Wet Michel, professor at Paris X-Nanterre and connoisseur of the industry, confirms this:" Prices have been falling early in the second quarter. We will see in January when we have statistics notaries, says he. These show that between the second and third quarter of this year's activity has sharply increased, probably over 15%. "This is not a flash in the pan: for Christopher Pinault, the Credit Foncier, 'increasing needs, coupled with lower stocks of new goods and a decrease of homes coming onto the market will necessarily lead to increased demand in the former. "
Credit revived
The reasons for the return of buyers are partly psychological. "They found the expected decline has not arrived. As the financial crisis seems over, they have recovered to make plans. And we saw them back in our study, analysis master Robert Panhard, notary in Paris.
But the return of buyers is also due for a real estate agent in Paris called "double" effect Kiss Cool "of real estate: a layer of lower prices and a layer of lower lending rates" ... For the improvement on the credit front is spectacular. Last year, banks were holding tightly to tap their credit. But since the summer, they have wide open. As Patrick Werner, CEO of La Banque Postale, the only bank that had continued to pay during the period, "it is not we who have changed their policy, they are our competitors!".
A change is explained: after their misadventures in the financial markets, banks have turned in their traditional clientele of individuals. They struggle to attract new customers. Moreover, adds Joel Boumendil, CEO of ACE, mortgage broker, "they realize they will struggle to achieve their business objectives in credits before the end of the year. So they are working extra hard. " And borrowers benefit. "In September, says Sandrine ALLONIA, design manager of online broker Meilleurtaux.com, we have registered some 50,000 applications for credit, against 38,000 in 2008 and 40 000 the previous year, before the real estate crisis. And the situation in October was interviewed on the same model. "
Banking institutions are more lenders to borrow themselves cheap. Result: their lending rates had their biggest drop since ... fifteen years, falling to 3.95% on average (see p. 90, credit conditions for banks). For Geoffroy Bragadir, spokesman Empruntis.com loan broker, "it is difficult to imagine the effect this fall on borrowers, but one year power purchase real estate seems to have improved Deplus 20 %.
An example: BNP Paribas offers for a loan of 200 000 over fifteen years, 3.84%. In our number "Featured Property" Fan last, at the same time, the rate for the same loan was 5.25%. In one year, the bank has lowered its offer by 1.4 points. The effect on interest is spectacular. In the first case, our borrower pays more than 73,300 euros in interest over the term of the loan. In the second, it should more than 99,300. In one year, it saved 26,000 euros in interest!
The gain in purchasing power is even more important taking into account the lower price. Imagine a couple who could repay, in 1998, a monthly payment of 1,500 euros. This couple could have time to pay the equivalent of the monthly payment, an accommodation of 184 m2. In late 2007, given rising prices and soaring interest rates, its purchasing power had fallen in m2 to 79 m2, two times less than in 1999. This year, it increased to 93 m2. This means that in one year lower rates and lower prices have combined to enable him to afford additional 14 m2.
Even with a smaller budget, this increase in purchasing power is significant. Of Toulouse, for example, which last year had a capacity of monthly payment of 1,000 euros, 150,000 could borrow euros and buy a 3-rooms (54 m2 exactly) to 2 790 euros per m2. Today, these same Toulouse can borrow EUR 166000 and buy a 4-rooms of 65 m2 (in 2497 euros per m2) ...
In nine, this effect is accentuated because the buyers will benefit from several additional aid: VAT at 5.5% (against 19.6% in the former) in some neighborhoods, the Pass-land, the loan helped to buy the land then the walls and finally the zero-interest loan, which covers about 60% of buyers and the amount is doubled until mid-2010. "By adding these measures to lower prices and interest rates, the gain in purchasing power of buyers in the new can reach 50%," said Olivier Mitterrand, CEO of developer The New Builders, which expects sales in 2009 higher sales in 2007.
Coeur market blocked
This does not mean that all problems that have caused the collapse in sales two years ago have disappeared. The main point of concern, analysis Sebastien de Lafond, CEO Meilleursagents.com, "is that the natural heart of the market, the family home, remains blocked because the middle classes are reluctant to return." A heart that still represents more than 100,000 transactions each year. So, for now, says Christian Musset, President Cogedim Sale, "the market is very concentrated on help (first-time buyers) and the very wealthy."
Why the middle classes are reluctant to buy? Just because they are, mostly, selling their property before buying another. But banks have opened the floodgates of credit, but careful not those of the closed bridge loan. The Second-time buyers (those who sell before you buy) will probably not many for some time. For Laurent Vimont, president of Century 21, this is changing: "In one quarter, says he, the number of buyers increased by 21% nationally and 35% on Paris."
But competitors do not detect tremor: the real estate market of the family home will probably be the last to unjam in France. For it is released, observes Olivier Mitterrand, "should be an economic recovery, particularly a decline in unemployment." But that is another story.
Real Estate : The housing market is still suffering
In October, prices for apartments has strengthened and the houses has shown a slightly downward. In the current crisis, the housing market is more penalized than apartments, according to PAP.
Powered by both home buyers and investors wishing to make an investment rental, the apartment market regains some old insurance. In late October, the index PAP (owners) of the former apartment market recorded a monthly increase of 1.03%. But about a year he was down 2.34%. In this sector, the rate of decline on the accepted sale price amounts to 6.33% and the average time transaction amounted to thirteen weeks.
Also at the end of October, the index PAP houses displays with a monthly drop of 0.26% and a decrease of 5.92% over one year. In this sector, the rate of trading (price decrease obtained) stood at 7.79% and the average time transaction amounted to sixteen weeks.
Recognizing the changing market as a whole, these indices were calculated based on 11,433 transactions recorded in the first eight French cities: Paris, Marseille, Aix-en-Provence, Lyon, Lille, Nice, Toulouse , Bordeaux and Nantes.
On the side, the positive side, note the level of lending rates, which is the lowest in nearly three years, and the attractive prices of apartments. Compared to end 2007, these properties show a decline of over 6%. "These market conditions attract new buyers looking for opportunities and solvabilisent some candidates for homeownership" says one in PAP. But the increase rate negotiation and longer delays in transaction continue to penalize the property market.
Powered by both home buyers and investors wishing to make an investment rental, the apartment market regains some old insurance. In late October, the index PAP (owners) of the former apartment market recorded a monthly increase of 1.03%. But about a year he was down 2.34%. In this sector, the rate of decline on the accepted sale price amounts to 6.33% and the average time transaction amounted to thirteen weeks.
Also at the end of October, the index PAP houses displays with a monthly drop of 0.26% and a decrease of 5.92% over one year. In this sector, the rate of trading (price decrease obtained) stood at 7.79% and the average time transaction amounted to sixteen weeks.
Recognizing the changing market as a whole, these indices were calculated based on 11,433 transactions recorded in the first eight French cities: Paris, Marseille, Aix-en-Provence, Lyon, Lille, Nice, Toulouse , Bordeaux and Nantes.
On the side, the positive side, note the level of lending rates, which is the lowest in nearly three years, and the attractive prices of apartments. Compared to end 2007, these properties show a decline of over 6%. "These market conditions attract new buyers looking for opportunities and solvabilisent some candidates for homeownership" says one in PAP. But the increase rate negotiation and longer delays in transaction continue to penalize the property market.
Real estate: signs of recovery in the Var
Then it resumed in real estate? The sales figures in the new one seem to attest. In the Alpes-Maritimes, the second quarter of 2009 increased by 34% of transactions over the same period last year. But beware of trompe l'oeil effect: the device Scellier very attractive for investors, has boosted the market in sales representing six out of ten. What is said to Jean-Marie Ebel of the Center property, it is "a temporary situation" (deadweight) rather than a true "structural recovery. For consumer confidence remains fragile. "
In light progress
But it does not hide his pleasure to see a patient out of coma. The transactions were dropped to almost zero at the end of 2008. Everything is positive deserves to be taken. If the promoters have succeeded thanks to the removal of the law Scellier in acceptable conditions, the better! It's good for the economy and therefore employment.
In the Var, the situation is somewhat similar. In Q3 2009, the number of homes sold was up slightly. Gilles Pernod, vice president of the federation property development, said: "We made 400 sales, or 7 to 8% better than Q2. "The prices have also increased slightly. With an average price per square meter of 3 900th in 2008 increased to 3 940 e in the first half of 2009 and EUR 4 154th currently. "It is because they sell more small homes, which have a cost higher," adds Gilles Pernod. However, caution is still required. For if real economic recovery, the industry faces a downturn in the short term. "The reconstruction of new supply is not. Usually, 500 new homes are put on sale. Here, we produced only 300 "
There is just one year, while the banking system threatened to collapse, carrying the savings of individuals, we would have signed for such a scenario. Even if all the actors in the chain property (sellers, buyers, banks, developers, agencies) would like the market finally goes overdrive.
In light progress
But it does not hide his pleasure to see a patient out of coma. The transactions were dropped to almost zero at the end of 2008. Everything is positive deserves to be taken. If the promoters have succeeded thanks to the removal of the law Scellier in acceptable conditions, the better! It's good for the economy and therefore employment.
In the Var, the situation is somewhat similar. In Q3 2009, the number of homes sold was up slightly. Gilles Pernod, vice president of the federation property development, said: "We made 400 sales, or 7 to 8% better than Q2. "The prices have also increased slightly. With an average price per square meter of 3 900th in 2008 increased to 3 940 e in the first half of 2009 and EUR 4 154th currently. "It is because they sell more small homes, which have a cost higher," adds Gilles Pernod. However, caution is still required. For if real economic recovery, the industry faces a downturn in the short term. "The reconstruction of new supply is not. Usually, 500 new homes are put on sale. Here, we produced only 300 "
There is just one year, while the banking system threatened to collapse, carrying the savings of individuals, we would have signed for such a scenario. Even if all the actors in the chain property (sellers, buyers, banks, developers, agencies) would like the market finally goes overdrive.
Fannie Mae loses further $ 18.9 billion
This pushed Treasury to claim public support for 15 billion dollars. The body of U.S. mortgage refinancing Fannie Mae said Thursday it had suffered in the third quarter, a new heavy net loss of 18.9 billion dollars. This pushed Treasury to claim public support for 15 billion dollars.
The loss this quarter was reduced by 35% over the same quarter last year, but has worsened over the second quarter, when it was 14.8 billion, the company said in a statement. Since the beginning of the year, the group relief under state supervision reach 56.8 billion dollars.
The group attributed the new hole in its finances at "22.0 billion dollars in spending, reflecting the continued accumulation of both loss reserves and impairments due to accounting adjustments in the right price.
These impairments are attributed to "growing number of loans that were acquired from holders of securities backed by mortgages to continue the program modified the terms of the loan" for struggling homeowners, Fannie Mae said.
The organization is in effect sought by the government to borrow securities backed by mortgages whose value has collapsed, and support in this way the housing market.
"Therefore, (Wednesday), the director of the Federal Agency for real estate finance (the administrative supervision of the company, editor's note) has submitted a request to get $ 15.0 billion from the Treasury company name, "said Fannie Mae.
The loss this quarter was reduced by 35% over the same quarter last year, but has worsened over the second quarter, when it was 14.8 billion, the company said in a statement. Since the beginning of the year, the group relief under state supervision reach 56.8 billion dollars.
The group attributed the new hole in its finances at "22.0 billion dollars in spending, reflecting the continued accumulation of both loss reserves and impairments due to accounting adjustments in the right price.
These impairments are attributed to "growing number of loans that were acquired from holders of securities backed by mortgages to continue the program modified the terms of the loan" for struggling homeowners, Fannie Mae said.
The organization is in effect sought by the government to borrow securities backed by mortgages whose value has collapsed, and support in this way the housing market.
"Therefore, (Wednesday), the director of the Federal Agency for real estate finance (the administrative supervision of the company, editor's note) has submitted a request to get $ 15.0 billion from the Treasury company name, "said Fannie Mae.
mercredi 4 novembre 2009
The real estate in freefall
Sales of luxury properties have fallen by 50% over one year while prices have lost between 5 and 10% said Stéphane Imowicz, president of the Institute of French property valuation and consulting company Ad Valorem for Capital.fr.
In addition, the myth of the purchaser who buys a villa or a mansion without looking at the price is no longer valid. Today the properties in high-end are the subject of systematic negotiations, which can lower the selling price by 10-15% compared to the prices displayed. Consequently, delays sales of luxury goods longer.
Usually very popular with the rich client, the Haussmann apartments of 200-250 m2 located in the beautiful city of Paris will sell more and more difficult to price in excess of 2, 5 million euros.
While owners have been slow to revise their claims to fall, potential buyers are becoming increasingly price conscious, according to Stéphane Imowicz.
In addition, the myth of the purchaser who buys a villa or a mansion without looking at the price is no longer valid. Today the properties in high-end are the subject of systematic negotiations, which can lower the selling price by 10-15% compared to the prices displayed. Consequently, delays sales of luxury goods longer.
Usually very popular with the rich client, the Haussmann apartments of 200-250 m2 located in the beautiful city of Paris will sell more and more difficult to price in excess of 2, 5 million euros.
While owners have been slow to revise their claims to fall, potential buyers are becoming increasingly price conscious, according to Stéphane Imowicz.
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